The findings arrive at a crucial moment as Indonesia implements its Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025–2034, which includes the construction of 10.3 gigawatts (GW) of new gas-fired power plants. Although natural gas is widely promoted as a cleaner transition fuel than coal, the researchers argue that expanding gas infrastructure without securing long-term domestic supplies could undermine the resilience of Indonesia’s electricity system and increase future energy costs.
Gas Remains Central to Indonesia’s Energy Transition
Indonesia’s latest electricity development plan targets 69.5 GW of additional generating capacity. Renewable energy accounts for the largest share of new capacity, but fossil fuels remain an important component of the national electricity mix, including 10.3 GW of new gas-fired power plants.
Natural gas has often been described as a bridge fuel because it produces lower carbon dioxide emissions than coal. However, the study explains that gas combustion still releases carbon dioxide, while methane emissions throughout production, transportation, and distribution contribute significantly to climate change. Methane has a much higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide, making gas less environmentally sustainable than commonly assumed.
The researchers also note that investing heavily in gas infrastructure could create a long-term dependence on fossil fuels, slowing Indonesia’s transition toward renewable energy.
Declining Domestic Gas Reserves Raise Long-Term Concerns
One of the study’s most significant findings is the rapid decline in Indonesia’s proven natural gas reserves.
According to the analysis, proven reserves fell from 101.22 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in 2016 to 35.30 TCF in 2023, representing a 65.1 percent decline over seven years. At the same time, domestic gas production has continued to decrease while demand continues to rise across multiple sectors, including electricity generation, manufacturing, fertilizer production, and households.
Based on current production levels, the researchers estimate that Indonesia’s remaining gas reserves could last only about 14 years, whereas gas-fired power plants typically operate for around 40 years. This mismatch increases the risk of stranded infrastructure investments and future dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Research Combined Legal and Energy Policy Analysis
Rather than relying solely on engineering or economic analysis, the researchers adopted a juridical-empirical research design that combines legal analysis with energy policy evaluation.
The study examined Indonesia’s energy laws and regulations alongside government planning documents, gas production statistics, LNG demand projections, international market reports, and geopolitical developments affecting global energy supply chains. The collected information was then evaluated using an energy resilience framework based on four key dimensions: availability, accessibility, affordability, and sustainability.
This interdisciplinary approach allowed the authors to assess not only technical energy issues but also the legal responsibilities of the Indonesian government in maintaining long-term energy resilience.
Four Major Risks Identified
The study concludes that expanding gas-fired electricity generation creates vulnerabilities across all four pillars of national energy resilience.
Availability
Domestic gas reserves continue to decline while demand continues to increase. Without major new discoveries, Indonesia may become increasingly dependent on imported LNG to supply future gas-fired power plants.
Accessibility
Gas resources are concentrated primarily in Kalimantan and Papua, while approximately 73.5 percent of electricity demand is located within the Java–Bali power system. This geographic imbalance creates distribution challenges and higher infrastructure costs.
The researchers also highlight a policy paradox: Papua hosts one of Indonesia’s largest LNG production facilities, yet several regions in Papua continue to experience limited electricity access.
Affordability
Dependence on imported LNG exposes Indonesia to global price volatility. LNG prices in Asia have experienced dramatic fluctuations in recent years due to geopolitical events, including the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
The study estimates that expanding gas-fired generation could increase annual costs by as much as IDR 155.8 trillion by 2034, including subsidies required to bridge the gap between domestic and international gas prices.
Sustainability
Although cleaner than coal, natural gas remains a fossil fuel. The planned expansion is projected to produce an additional 10–11 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions each year, while methane leakage throughout the gas supply chain further increases climate impacts.
According to the researchers, continued investment in gas infrastructure could delay Indonesia’s commitment to achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2060.
Global Geopolitics Has Become an Energy Security Issue
The research emphasizes that Indonesia’s future electricity security will increasingly depend on international political developments.
Global LNG markets have become more volatile following geopolitical events such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Increased reliance on LNG imports from countries including the United States, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Algeria could expose Indonesia’s electricity system to supply disruptions, price spikes, and international trade tensions.
According to Muh. Jamil and colleagues at Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia, energy resilience should no longer be understood simply as maintaining adequate fuel supplies. It must also include the ability to withstand geopolitical shocks, market instability, unequal energy distribution, and environmental challenges while ensuring affordable and sustainable electricity for the public.
Diversification Should Lead Indonesia’s Energy Future
The authors conclude that Indonesia’s current gas expansion strategy has not yet created a legal energy crisis, but the country has entered what they describe as a structural pre-crisis phase, where declining domestic reserves, increasing import dependence, price volatility, and geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly interconnected.
To reduce these risks, the study recommends adopting risk-based energy governance, requiring policymakers to evaluate every major energy investment against long-term risks such as import dependence, stranded assets, and geopolitical exposure.
The researchers also recommend accelerating renewable energy deployment while limiting excessive dependence on LNG imports. In their view, natural gas should remain a temporary transition fuel rather than becoming a permanent foundation of Indonesia’s electricity system.
Author Profile
Muh. Jamil is a researcher at the Faculty of National Security, Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia (Indonesia Defense University), Bogor, West Java, Indonesia. His research focuses on energy security, national security, energy law, and public policy.
M. Adnan Madjid is an academic at the Faculty of National Security, Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia, specializing in national security policy, governance, and strategic energy policy.
Anang Puji Utama is a lecturer and researcher at the Faculty of National Security, Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia, with expertise in public law, national security, and energy resilience.
Source
Article Title: Legal and Policy Analysis of Indonesia’s Energy Sector: Energy Resilience and Gas Dependence in the Electricity System
Authors: Muh. Jamil, M. Adnan Madjid, Anang Puji Utama
Journal: Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (FJMR)
Publication Year: 2026
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