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FORMOSA NEWS - Medan - A comprehensive decadal study conducted by researchers at Universitas Sumatera Utara reveals that the open unemployment rate has no significant impact on poverty levels in North Sumatra Province. The collaborative research, spearheaded by Yan Batara Putra Siringoringo, Muthia Ferliani Balqis, Enita Dewi Br Tarigan, and Citra Dewi Hasibuan from Universitas Sumatera Utara, analyzed socioeconomic data spanning from 2015 to 2025. These findings fundamentally challenge conventional economic assumptions by proving that job scarcity is not the primary driver of poverty in the region. Understanding this structural anomaly is critical for regional policymakers who design welfare programs and economic interventions in western Indonesia.
The Disconnect Between Joblessness and Poverty
Socioeconomic planning often relies on the traditional theory that rising unemployment directly triggers an increase in poverty by wiping out individual household incomes. However, the reality observed in North Sumatra over the last ten years demonstrates a far more complex socioeconomic dynamic. Data compiled from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates that the open unemployment rate and poverty levels fluctuated independently at multiple historical junctures. This paradox became especially clear during the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. During this crisis, the open unemployment rate in North Sumatra spiked sharply to 6.91%. Yet, despite fewer formal jobs, the poverty rate in the province actually decreased to 8.75% that same year. This shift proves that the local population utilized informal economic safety nets and alternative survival strategies to fulfill their basic needs outside of standard formal employment.
A Simple Quantitative Approach to Regional Macroeconomics
To evaluate the exact relationship between labor market failures and destitution, the research team at Universitas Sumatera Utara utilized a quantitative methodology centered on a simple linear regression model. The scientists collected time-series data from the North Sumatra Statistics Office covering the eleven-year period. Before finalizing their framework, the investigators subjected the dataset to rigorous statistical assumptions, verifying residual distribution through a normality test and tracking historical trends with an autocorrelation check. The underlying mathematical model formulated by the Universitas Sumatera Utara researchers is expressed through the following linear equation:
The Disconnect Between Joblessness and Poverty
Socioeconomic planning often relies on the traditional theory that rising unemployment directly triggers an increase in poverty by wiping out individual household incomes. However, the reality observed in North Sumatra over the last ten years demonstrates a far more complex socioeconomic dynamic. Data compiled from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates that the open unemployment rate and poverty levels fluctuated independently at multiple historical junctures. This paradox became especially clear during the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. During this crisis, the open unemployment rate in North Sumatra spiked sharply to 6.91%. Yet, despite fewer formal jobs, the poverty rate in the province actually decreased to 8.75% that same year. This shift proves that the local population utilized informal economic safety nets and alternative survival strategies to fulfill their basic needs outside of standard formal employment.
A Simple Quantitative Approach to Regional Macroeconomics
To evaluate the exact relationship between labor market failures and destitution, the research team at Universitas Sumatera Utara utilized a quantitative methodology centered on a simple linear regression model. The scientists collected time-series data from the North Sumatra Statistics Office covering the eleven-year period. Before finalizing their framework, the investigators subjected the dataset to rigorous statistical assumptions, verifying residual distribution through a normality test and tracking historical trends with an autocorrelation check. The underlying mathematical model formulated by the Universitas Sumatera Utara researchers is expressed through the following linear equation:
$$Y = 5.465 + 0.593X$$
In this statistical framework, $Y$ represents the regional poverty rate, while $X$ denotes the open unemployment rate. The model indicates that for every 1% increase in open unemployment, the regional poverty level is projected to experience a minor, statistically weak increase of only 0.593%.
Key Research Findings
Following meticulous software processing and verification via standard statistical metrics (the F-test and t-test), the authors documented several critical outcomes:
- Insignificant Statistical Impact: Individual t-test measurements and overall F-test metrics yielded a significance level of 0.359. Because this figure sits substantially above the standard 0.05 scientific threshold, the data proves that open unemployment does not exert a meaningful influence on poverty levels in North Sumatra.
- Low Explanatory Power: The calculated coefficient of determination ($R^2$) reached a mere 0.094. This metric reveals that the open unemployment rate explains only 9.4% of the poverty fluctuations recorded in the province over the decade.
- Predominance of External Forces: A staggering 90.6% of the shifts in North Sumatra's poverty rates stem from external socioeconomic variables entirely separate from unemployment.
Real-World Implications for Regional Public Policy
The discovery that joblessness does not automatically equate to poverty has massive implications for community welfare, corporate expansion, and public policy. Lead researcher Yan Batara Putra Siringoringo and his colleagues at Universitas Sumatera Utara emphasize that local administrations must pivot away from narrow employment metrics. Instead of prioritizing the raw quantity of new jobs, government bodies need to enhance the overall quality of existing positions and establish stronger socioeconomic safety nets.
Author Profiles
Yan Batara Putra Siringoringo, S.Si., M.Si. is a faculty member and researcher at Universitas Sumatera Utara. He specializes in applied statistics, macroeconomic data modeling, and quantitative regional research.
Muthia Ferliani Balqis is an economic researcher affiliated with Universitas Sumatera Utara, focusing on labor economics and regional development metrics.
Enita Dewi Br Tarigan is a social scientist at Universitas Sumatera Utara whose work centers on poverty alleviation strategies and public policy analysis.
Citra Dewi Hasibuan is a quantitative analyst at Universitas Sumatera Utara specializing in demographic statistics and socioeconomic data verification.
Source
Yan Batara Putra Siringoringo, Muthia Ferliani Balqis, Enita Dewi Br Tarigan, Citra Dewi Hasibuan. The Effect of Open Unemployment Rate on Poverty Level in North Sumatra Province 2015-2025. Formosa Journal of Applied Sciences (FJAS). Vol. 5, No. 6, Halaman 1377-1384
DOI : https://doi.org/10.55927/fjas.v5i6.69
URL: https://journalfjas.my.id/index.php/fjas
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