The research examined operational performance and investment feasibility for AKDP (Intercity Transportation Within the Province) bus services operating on the Madiun Ponorogo corridor in East Java. The route serves daily mobility needs for students, workers, and residents who rely on public transportation between regional centers.
As private vehicle ownership continues to increase and digital transportation alternatives become more widely available, public transport operators face growing pressure to improve reliability, comfort, and competitiveness. The Madiun–Ponorogo route illustrates a broader challenge affecting many regional transport systems across Indonesia: maintaining service quality while ensuring financial sustainability.
According to the researchers from Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya, transportation infrastructure plays a central role in supporting economic activity, regional connectivity, and public welfare. However, operational inefficiencies and declining passenger demand can weaken the long-term viability of public transport networks.
Data referenced in the study indicated that passenger occupancy on the route had fallen to approximately 24 percent per departure, significantly below the operational benchmark of 70 percent commonly used in public transport performance evaluation.
To understand the condition more comprehensively, the researchers combined field observations with operational and financial analysis.
The study used a descriptive quantitative design and collected both primary and secondary data. Operational information was obtained from Purboyo Type A Terminal, including fleet numbers, departure schedules, trip frequency, passenger production, and load factor data.
Field data came from direct passenger interviews, facility inventories, terminal observations, and onboard travel surveys. A total of 87 passengers were selected from a weekly population of 650 users to represent service experiences and travel patterns.
The research team evaluated service performance indicators and then tested whether investment in additional buses could improve conditions without creating financial losses.
The results showed that bus performance remains uneven.
During certain periods, service frequency was relatively acceptable. The highest arrival frequency occurred between 9:00 and 10:00 a.m. with four vehicles per hour, while departures reached five vehicles per hour.
However, the broader operating pattern revealed persistent service gaps.
Key operational findings included:
- Headway, or time between buses, frequently reached 60 minutes.
- Passenger waiting time remained longer than desirable for regional public transport.
- Maximum load factor reached only 20 percent on arrival and 28 percent on departure.
- Existing occupancy levels remained far below the recommended 70 percent standard.
These findings suggest that available capacity is not being used efficiently and that current service conditions may discourage passengers from choosing buses over private transportation.
The researchers also identified priority areas for service improvement through passenger-based evaluation.
Eight factors emerged as the most urgent:
- onboard safety equipment,
- seating and luggage facilities,
- travel speed,
- seatbelt availability,
- air conditioning,
- service information,
- waiting time,
- schedule certainty.
To address these issues, the study modeled the impact of adding bus fleets.
Calculations showed that the route ideally requires 10 operating buses to achieve a service interval of approximately 20 minutes. Since only eight buses were available, the analysis recommended adding two more fleets.
Financial evaluation was then conducted using four investment indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period (PP), and Break Even Point (BEP).
The outcome indicated that investment remains financially attractive.
Major financial findings included:
- Net Present Value (NPV): IDR 534.95 million (positive result)
- Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 8.27 percent, exceeding the assumed interest rate of 6 percent
- Payback Period: investment recovery within five years
- Net accumulated benefit: IDR 578.13 million
- Break-even threshold: 14,249 passengers or IDR 284.97 million in revenue
Annual vehicle operating costs for each additional bus were estimated at IDR 180.68 million.
In practical terms, the findings indicate that service improvements do not necessarily conflict with commercial feasibility.
Kamaliah and colleagues from Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya argue that improving reliability and passenger experience can become part of a broader strategy to rebuild public confidence in regional transportation. Better scheduling, reduced waiting times, and improved onboard facilities may help attract users back to public transit and reduce dependence on private vehicles.
The study also offers useful evidence for transport operators and policymakers considering investment decisions in regional bus systems. Rather than focusing only on cost reduction, targeted operational improvements may generate both public benefits and sustainable returns.
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