The research, published in the International Journal of Economic, Finance and Business Statistics (IJEFBS), examined voter preferences around the Tumpang Pitu gold-mining area in Banyuwangi, East Java. The researchers used a framework called the Dual Sustainability Framework (DSF) to examine how voters balance immediate economic needs with long-term environmental interests.
The study was published in 2026 in Volume 4, Issue 4 of IJEFBS, covering pages 563–580.
Mining, Economic Dependence, and Environmental Pressure
Banyuwangi provides an important setting for understanding this political dilemma. The Tumpang Pitu gold mine has operated since 2017 and has become part of the region’s economic landscape. At the same time, mining activity has been associated with land disputes and community resistance.
Banyuwangi has also developed alternative economic activities, particularly sustainable tourism. This creates a complex political environment in which voters may simultaneously consider employment and economic growth, environmental protection, and the future of their communities.
Saputra, Pratikto, Wilujeng, and Muhammad describe this situation as a dual sustainability challenge. Political candidates must respond to short-term electoral pressures while demonstrating credible commitments to long-term ecological sustainability.
Rather than assuming that voters must choose between the economy and the environment, the researchers examined whether voters could prefer policies that address both concerns.
How the Researchers Studied Voter Preferences
The researchers surveyed 100 registered voters in Banyuwangi. Sixty respondents lived in the impact zone around Pesanggaran, which is closely connected to the Tumpang Pitu mining area, while 40 respondents came from Banyuwangi City and Rogojampi as control areas.
Participants evaluated 16 different candidate program profiles, rating each profile on a scale from 1 to 9. Each profile combined different policy choices across five areas:
- Development program orientation
- Local economic strategy
- Political support sustainability
- Post-mining commitment
- Vision for future generations
The researchers used a conjoint analysis to identify which policy characteristics contributed most strongly to voter preferences.
The statistical model showed a strong fit with voter evaluations. The overall Pearson correlation reached 0.971, while Kendall’s tau-b reached 0.862, indicating a high level of consistency between the observed ratings and the model’s estimates.
Vision for Future Generations Ranked First
The strongest overall finding was the importance of Vision for Future Generations, which received an importance score of 21.253%.
Local Economic Strategy followed at 20.900%, while Political Support Sustainability reached 20.505%. Post-Mining Commitment accounted for 20.037%, and Development Program Orientation ranked lowest at 17.304%.
When combined, the two ecological attributes—Vision for Future Generations and Post-Mining Commitment—accounted for 41.290% of total attribute importance. This was higher than the combined 37.809% contribution of the two electoral attributes, Political Support Sustainability and Development Program Orientation.
The result suggests that environmental and intergenerational concerns can carry substantial political weight even in areas affected by extractive industries.
Aggressive Mining Expansion Received the Strongest Rejection
The researchers also found a particularly strong rejection of policies centered on expanding mining activity.
The intensive-extractive strategy, which proposed expanding the Tumpang Pitu mine to accelerate economic growth, received a part-worth utility score of -0.429, the most negative score among all policy levels examined.
By contrast, green diversification received a positive score of +0.261 overall. This option included economic development through tourism, organic agriculture, and renewable energy.
However, voters did not simply favor the most environmentally ambitious option in every category. They frequently preferred moderate or balanced alternatives.
For example, a balanced development program combining short-term programs with medium-term investment received the highest utility among development options at +0.098. Both the quick-win and long-term investment alternatives received negative scores.
A similar pattern appeared in future-generation policies. The balanced vision received a utility of +0.235, compared with +0.160 for the more visionary option.
These results indicate that voters tend to seek a middle path that addresses present economic needs without sacrificing future environmental interests.
Directly Affected Voters Were More Pragmatic
The research also identified significant differences between voters living closer to the mining conflict and those in the control zone.
Control-zone voters showed stronger support for ambitious environmental policies. Their preference for green diversification reached +0.409, compared with +0.162 among impact-zone voters.
The difference was also evident in post-mining policies. Control-zone voters strongly preferred a transformative approach involving rehabilitation, training, compensation, and economic transition, with a utility of +0.378. The corresponding score in the impact zone was only +0.017.
Impact-zone voters, however, preferred a controlled-extractive strategy, involving continued mining under strict environmental oversight and compensation. This option received a utility of +0.203 in the impact zone, compared with +0.116 in the control zone.
The findings suggest that direct exposure to mining-related economic realities does not eliminate environmental concerns. Instead, it appears to make voters more cautious about the speed and scale of economic transition.
Participation Emerges as Common Ground
One policy preference was shared across both groups: participatory political support.
This approach, which emphasizes citizen involvement in setting development priorities and making decisions, received an overall utility of +0.227. Patronage-based politics, involving direct assistance and personal political relationships, received a negative score of -0.072.
For political candidates, the result points to the importance of meaningful community participation rather than relying primarily on transactional assistance.
The researchers also caution against making environmental promises without concrete implementation. Both groups rejected the minimal post-mining commitment, which represents basic regulatory compliance without substantial follow-up programs.
Implications for Political Strategy and Public Policy
The findings have practical implications for candidates, campaign teams, local governments, and election institutions.
In directly affected communities, political candidates may need to emphasize a gradual and credible economic transition, including controlled mining, measurable rehabilitation commitments, compensation, and protection of existing livelihoods.
In areas less dependent on mining, candidates may have greater political space to promote green economic diversification, transformative post-mining programs, and stronger long-term environmental commitments.
For local policymakers, the findings can also inform post-mining economic transition strategies. The researchers propose that the Dual Sustainability Scale could eventually be used to assess candidate commitments and encourage more substantive policy debates.
As Saputra and his colleagues from Universitas Negeri Malang demonstrate, voter preferences in resource-rich regions are more nuanced than a simple choice between economic growth and environmental protection. Voters can support economic development while simultaneously demanding credible protection for future generations.
Author Profile
Priangga Eko Saputra, Heri Pratikto, Ita Prihatining Wilujeng, and Naufal Dzakwana Muhammad are researchers affiliated with Universitas Negeri Malang. Their work in this article focuses on political brand positioning, voter preferences, sustainability, economic policy, and political decision-making in regions affected by natural-resource extraction.
The article lists Priangga Eko Saputra as the corresponding author. The researchers’ academic contribution connects political marketing with environmental sustainability and extractive-resource conflict, providing a framework for understanding how voters evaluate competing economic and ecological priorities.
Research Source
Article Title: Political Brand Positioning in an Extractive Conflict Region: A Conjoint Analysis of Banyuwangi Voter Preferences Based on the Dual Sustainability Framework
Authors: Priangga Eko Saputra, Heri Pratikto, Ita Prihatining Wilujeng, Naufal Dzakwana Muhammad
Affiliation: Universitas Negeri Malang
Journal: International Journal of Economic, Finance and Business Statistics (IJEFBS)
Publication: 2026, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 563–580
DOI: 10.59890/ijefbs.v4i4.31
URL: http://journalijefbs.my.id/index.php/ijefbs
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