An Evaluation of Environmental Carrying Capacity and Accommodation Capacity for the Utilization of Residential Space of Mataram City

Ardianta Jumat, September 11, 2026
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FORMOSA NEWS

Mataram Faces Housing Capacity Crisis as Ampenan Experiences Severe Land Deficit

MATARAM — Rapid urbanization and population growth in Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara, are threatening the availability of safe and sustainable living space, according to a new scientific evaluation. Researchers Roman Ongka Wijaya, Endah Wahyuningsih, and Tajidan Tajidan from the University of Mataram discovered that the residential environmental carrying capacity in the city has declined significantly. Their study, published in August 2026, warns that three of six sub-districts in Mataram are already experiencing residential land deficits, with Ampenan experiencing the most severe crisis.

This study carries vital importance because Mataram serves as a National Activity Center, administrative hub, educational center, healthcare node, and primary tourism gateway for West Nusa Tenggara. These regional functions drive strong migration and rapid conversion of productive agricultural land into built-up urban zones. Without effective spatial interventions, population concentration will surpass the environment's natural ability to support healthy and secure human settlements.

Urban Challenges and Environmental Pressures

Mataram's population expands at an average rate of 1.34% annually, exceeding 440,000 residents across a total geographic area of only 61.30 square kilometers. This geographic imbalance triggers uncontrolled urban sprawl into suburban and agricultural fringes.

The widespread conversion of productive cropland and protected paddy fields into residential housing modifies the local hydrologic system. Decreased water absorption areas heighten seasonal flood risks during heavy rains. Meanwhile, dense residential developments lacking centralized domestic wastewater management systems risk contaminating groundwater resources and degrading public health.

Simple Analytical Approach

To evaluate these spatial dynamics, the research team at the University of Mataram applied a quantitative spatial method using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping. The researchers analyzed 2025 Sentinel-2 satellite imagery using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm to map actual land cover across the city.

The study overlaid nine Land Capability Unit parameters—including topography, slope stability, water availability, drainage, and natural hazard vulnerability—in accordance with Indonesian Ministry of Public Works Regulation No. 20/2007. The team calculated geometric population projections through 2035 to evaluate Residential Land Needs, Residential Carrying Capacity, and optimal Accommodation Capacity for each sub-district.

Key Research Findings

Spatial analysis indicates that physical infrastructure and built environment dominate land use across Mataram:

  • Dominant Built-Up Area: Actual residential land in Mataram has reached 4,238.58 hectares, representing 70.19% of the city's total area of 6,039.01 hectares.
  • High Population Density: The average actual residential density stands at 109.36 people per hectare. Ampenan recorded the highest density at 128.59 people per hectare, followed by Mataram Sub-district at 113.43 people per hectare.
  • Suitable Residential Land Availability: After excluding protected zones, disaster-prone areas, and enforcing a maximum 50% building coverage ratio, land truly suitable for residential use totals only 1,853.91 hectares citywide.
  • Spatial Carrying Capacity Deficit:Three sub-districts registered residential carrying capacity deficits starting in 2025: Ampenan (0.95), Cakranegara (0.92), and Mataram (1.05 in 2025, declining to a deficit of 0.96 by 2035).
  • Three sub-districts maintain carrying capacity surpluses: Sekarbela (2.17), Sandubaya (1.65), and Selaparang (1.52).
  • Accommodation Capacity Declines: The ideal total population accommodation capacity for Mataram's residential zones is 617,968 people. However, remaining population capacity drops by 30.4%, falling from 153,606 people in 2025 to 106,923 people by 2035.
  • Severe Land Deficits: Ampenan Sub-district experiences the most acute land deficit, recorded at -169.41 hectares in 2025 and projected to reach -228.59 hectares by 2035. Sekarbela Sub-district remains the only area with a consistent land surplus, measuring 119.49 hectares in 2025 and 84.69 hectares in 2035.

Policy Implications and Real-World Impact

These findings provide crucial guidance for urban planners and government policymakers addressing spatial imbalances in Mataram. Uncontrolled housing expansion in deficit sub-districts risks degrading living standards through severe spatial congestion, informal settlement growth, and acute environmental stress.

The researchers recommend a spatial zoning policy organized into three development priorities:

  • Priority 1 (Primary Growth Zone): Sekarbela Sub-district should serve as the main direction for new housing developments, maintaining medium density (60–80 people/ha) supported by integrated sanitation and wastewater infrastructure.
  • Priority 2 (Controlled Growth Zone): Sandubaya and Selaparang sub-districts should undergo planned residential expansion targeting undeveloped land.
  • Priority 3 (Strict Restructuring Zone): Ampenan, Cakranegara, and Mataram sub-districts must implement a moratorium on horizontal landed housing. Future development in these deficit zones must shift toward vertical housing (apartments and public housing units), slum revitalization, and urban green open spaces comprising at least 30% of land area."An evaluation of environmental carrying capacity and accommodation capacity must serve as the fundamental baseline for drafting or revising the Mataram City Detailed Spatial Plan, ensuring residential development remains strictly within sustainable environmental thresholds," the researchers stated in their report.

Author Profiles

  1. Roman Ongka Wijaya, S.T., M.Env. — Lead researcher and master's graduate from the Department of Land and Environmental Resource Management, Postgraduate Program, University of Mataram. His expertise includes spatial analysis, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and environmental planning.
  2. Ir. Endah Wahyuningsih, M.P. — Lecturer and researcher in the Department of Land and Environmental Resource Management, Postgraduate Program, University of Mataram, specializing in environmental ecology and natural resource management.
  3. Dr. Ir. Tajidan, M.S. — Senior lecturer and researcher in the Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Mataram, specializing in agricultural socio-economics, regional carrying capacity, and spatial planning.

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