The study, published in 2026 in the International Journal of Advanced Scientific Research (IJASR), comes in the wake of Indonesia's nationwide cooking oil crisis that began in late 2021 and continued into 2022. During that period, soaring global crude palm oil prices, export pressures, supply chain disruptions, and panic buying caused cooking oil prices to surge, leaving households and small businesses struggling to obtain one of Indonesia's most essential food commodities.
As cooking oil is one of Indonesia's nine staple necessities, shortages not only affected household consumption but also contributed to inflation, increased food insecurity, and public dissatisfaction. The findings highlight how local governments can prepare for similar crises using structured, data-driven policy decisions.
Indonesia's Cooking Oil Crisis Revealed Weaknesses in Food Supply Systems
Although Indonesia is the world's largest producer of palm oil, the country experienced severe cooking oil shortages due to several interconnected factors.
Among the major causes were:
Rising international crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
Increased exports by producers seeking higher profits.
The national B30 biodiesel program, which diverted palm oil toward fuel production.
COVID-19 disruptions to production and logistics.
Global supply shocks following the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Panic buying and stockpiling by consumers.
These factors pushed retail cooking oil prices to more than double in many regions, placing enormous pressure on both consumers and government institutions.
While the central government introduced export restrictions, domestic market obligations, price ceilings, and cash assistance, local governments still faced difficult decisions regarding which interventions should receive the highest priority.
Analytical Hierarchy Process Helps Rank Policy Priorities
To identify the most effective local government responses, Dr. Haji Saediman applied the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a widely used decision-making method developed by Thomas Saaty.
The research was conducted in South Konawe District between March and April 2023.
Rather than surveying the general public, the study gathered expert judgments from five key decision-makers, including:
Heads of regional government agencies responsible for agriculture, trade, food security, and development planning.
One academic specializing in food policy.
The experts evaluated policy alternatives through structured pairwise comparisons based on five major decision criteria:
Urgency (weight: 0.331)
Long-term stability and sustainability (0.233)
Policy alignment (0.171)
Budget and resource availability (0.142)
Economic impact (0.123)
The analysis demonstrated that urgency was considered the most important factor, reflecting the need for governments to respond quickly during food emergencies.
Subsidies Ranked as the Most Effective Immediate Strategy
The AHP analysis ranked five policy alternatives according to their overall effectiveness.
The priority order was:
Providing subsidies and social assistance (0.311)
Increasing local cooking oil production (0.271)
Ensuring adequate stock and distribution (0.155)
Monitoring and controlling inflation (0.148)
Increasing coconut production (0.116)
Subsidies and direct social assistance received the highest score because they can immediately reduce the financial burden on households experiencing rapid price increases.
According to the study, temporary subsidies help protect purchasing power, maintain food security, and reduce inflationary pressure while governments implement longer-term supply solutions.
The researchers also note that Indonesia successfully used direct cash assistance and subsidized cooking oil distribution during the 2022 crisis to cushion vulnerable communities.
However, subsidies alone cannot permanently solve supply shortages because they do not increase cooking oil production.
Local Cooking Oil Production Offers Long-Term Food Security
The second-highest priority strategy focuses on strengthening local cooking oil production, particularly by utilizing South Konawe's abundant coconut resources.
Instead of relying entirely on palm oil supplied from other provinces, the district could expand small-scale coconut oil processing industries, increasing local self-sufficiency.
The study explains that local production provides several long-term advantages:
Reduces dependence on external markets.
Improves regional food security.
Creates new employment opportunities.
Adds value to local agricultural products.
Generates additional income for farmers.
Builds resilience against future global price shocks.
Although expanding production requires more time and investment than subsidies, researchers believe it offers a sustainable solution capable of preventing similar shortages in the future.
During the 2022 crisis, South Konawe's local government even encouraged residents to produce traditional coconut oil for household consumption as a temporary alternative.
Better Distribution and Inflation Monitoring Remain Essential
The study also emphasizes the importance of maintaining efficient supply chains.
Ensuring that available cooking oil reaches consumers quickly can significantly reduce shortages without increasing production.
This includes:
Monitoring warehouses.
Preventing illegal stockpiling.
Supervising retail prices.
Coordinating with inflation control teams.
Conducting market inspections.
Inflation monitoring also plays a valuable supporting role by allowing governments to identify price spikes early and implement timely interventions before shortages become more severe.
Although these strategies ranked below subsidies and local production, they remain critical components of an integrated food security policy.
Coconut Development Supports Long-Term Economic Growth
Expanding coconut production ranked lowest among the five alternatives—not because it lacks value, but because it cannot deliver immediate results during a crisis.
Developing new coconut plantations requires years before additional harvests become available.
Nevertheless, researchers argue that stronger coconut production could eventually diversify Indonesia's cooking oil sources while creating new opportunities for rural economic development.
With growing international demand for coconut-based products, expanding coconut cultivation may also increase farmer incomes and strengthen regional agribusiness over the long term.
Local Context Matters in Food Security Policies
One of the study's key conclusions is that food security policies should reflect local conditions rather than relying solely on nationwide solutions.
South Konawe possesses abundant coconut resources but limited fiscal capacity and depends heavily on cooking oil transported from other regions.
Because of these characteristics, local production becomes far more relevant than it might be elsewhere.
The study demonstrates how decision-support tools such as AHP enable local governments to systematically identify policies that best match regional strengths, available resources, and community needs.
Dr. Haji Saediman argues that combining emergency assistance with investments in local production creates a more resilient food system capable of withstanding future market disruptions.
Implications for Policymakers
The findings offer practical guidance for local governments throughout Indonesia.
Rather than relying on a single intervention, policymakers should combine short-term relief with long-term structural improvements.
The researchers recommend:
Institutionalizing emergency subsidy mechanisms.
Expanding local cooking oil processing capacity.
Strengthening distribution networks.
Improving coordination between central and regional governments.
Building strategic cooking oil reserves.
Preventing hoarding and excessive price speculation.
Encouraging the use of locally available alternative resources such as coconut.
According to the study, evidence-based decision-making frameworks like AHP can improve transparency, prioritize limited resources, and strengthen government preparedness for future food commodity crises.
Author Profile
Dr. Haji Saediman is a researcher and academic at Halu Oleo University, Kendari, Indonesia. His expertise includes food security, agricultural economics, regional development, public policy, and multi-criteria decision analysis, with extensive research on sustainable agriculture and local food systems in Southeast Sulawesi.
Research Source
Article Title: Local Government Strategies to Address Cooking Oil Shortages: A Case Study from South Konawe District in Southeast Sulawesi
Author: Haji Saediman
Affiliation: Halu Oleo University, Kendari, Indonesia
Journal: International Journal of Advanced Scientific Research (IJASR)
Year: 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59890/ijasr.v4i7.284
Journal Website: https://nvlmultitechpublisher.my.id/index.php/ijasr/index
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