The study arrives at a time when geopolitical tensions continue to reshape the global economy. Military conflicts in strategic regions no longer affect only the countries directly involved. Instead, disruptions spread rapidly through interconnected energy markets, international trade, financial systems, and global supply chains. According to the authors, understanding these interactions has become increasingly important for governments seeking to strengthen national resilience and economic security.
Previous research has typically examined military conflict, energy security, and economic performance as separate subjects. Joseph Robert Giri and Kup Yanto Setiono argue that this fragmented approach no longer reflects the realities of contemporary warfare. Their research integrates military strategy, energy geopolitics, deterrence theory, structural realism, and global economic interdependence into a single analytical framework capable of explaining how modern conflicts generate systemic economic consequences.
The research employs an explanatory qualitative design supported by a system dynamics approach. Instead of focusing on isolated variables, the authors map interactions among military escalation, energy disruption, and economic pressures using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). Primary evidence comes from interviews with international relations expert Prof. Banyu Perwita and Major General Agus Widodo, Director General of Defense Strategy, while secondary data are drawn from international organizations including OPEC, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The findings demonstrate that modern warfare operates through interconnected feedback mechanisms rather than simple cause-and-effect relationships. Military escalation in the Middle East can interrupt global energy supplies, particularly around strategic maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Those disruptions increase oil prices, which subsequently raise production and transportation costs worldwide. The resulting inflation affects households, industries, and governments while increasing uncertainty across global financial markets.
The authors identify several major findings:
- Modern warfare has evolved into a multidimensional system involving military, cyber, political, economic, and information domains.
- Disruptions to global energy distribution can trigger inflation and slow economic growth across multiple regions.
- Supply chain interruptions amplify the economic effects of geopolitical conflict.
- Deterrence plays a stabilizing role by reducing the likelihood of full-scale war despite ongoing regional tensions.
- Global economic interdependence allows local conflicts to generate worldwide economic consequences.
- One of the study's most important observations concerns the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy corridors. The researchers explain that approximately 20–30 percent of global oil trade passes through this route. Any disruption caused by military escalation has the potential to create immediate volatility in global energy prices and transmit economic shocks across international markets.
The analysis also explains how deterrence shapes regional stability. Israel relies on technological superiority and strategic ambiguity regarding its nuclear capability, while Iran adopts asymmetric strategies involving missile capabilities and regional proxy networks. According to the researchers, these contrasting approaches create a fragile balance that limits direct large-scale confrontation while allowing indirect conflict to continue. Rather than eliminating conflict, deterrence regulates its intensity within a complex strategic environment.
Another important contribution of the study is its explanation of non-linear relationships. Instead of viewing conflict as a sequence of isolated events, the researchers describe reinforcing and balancing feedback loops linking military operations, energy markets, inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tension. This integrated systems perspective represents the study's principal academic contribution and offers policymakers a broader framework for understanding modern security challenges.
The practical implications extend well beyond military planning. The findings suggest that governments should strengthen energy independence, diversify supply chains, improve coordination between defense and economic institutions, and develop adaptive national resilience strategies. Businesses may also benefit by incorporating geopolitical risk into long-term investment and logistics planning, particularly in sectors heavily dependent on global energy markets.
As Joseph Robert Giri and Kup Yanto Setiono of Politeknik Angkatan Darat explain through their integrated analytical model, modern warfare should no longer be understood solely as military confrontation. Instead, it functions as an interconnected political, economic, and strategic system in which military actions, energy security, and global economic stability continuously influence one another.
Author Profile
Joseph Robert Giri is a researcher from Politeknik Angkatan Darat (Poltekad), Indonesia, whose work focuses on defense strategy, geopolitics, and international security.
Kup Yanto Setiono is also affiliated with Politeknik Angkatan Darat (Poltekad), Indonesia, with research interests in military strategy, defense policy, and the relationship between security and the global economy. The academic degrees of both authors are not specified in the available manuscript.
Source
Giri, Joseph Robert & Setiono, Kup Yanto. Modern War Strategy and Economic Independence: An Analysis of the US–Israel vs. Iran Conflict from the Perspective of Global Economic Disruption. Formosa Journal of Science and Technology (FJST), Vol. 5, No. 7, 2026. DOI: 10.55927/fjst.v5i7.116. URL : https://journalfjst.my.id/index.php/fjst
0 Komentar