To address this issue, the research team used a statistical approach to calculate Safety Stock, which represents the minimum reserve inventory required to maintain supply continuity during sudden demand spikes or delivery disruptions. The researchers also implemented the Reorder Point method to determine when warehouses should reorder fertilizer before inventory runs out completely. This approach helps distributors reduce the risk of shortages during critical agricultural periods. In addition, the study applied ABC classification to categorize warehouses based on their contribution to overall fertilizer distribution. Category A warehouses were identified as the highest-priority facilities, requiring strict inventory control and a service level target of up to 99 percent. Category B warehouses required moderate supervision, while Category C warehouses only needed basic inventory control with a 95 percent service level. The results showed that GD Takalar required the highest Safety Stock, reaching approximately 2,813 units under the 99 percent service level scenario. GD PKT Bone required around 2,624 reserve units. These figures were significantly higher than those of smaller warehouses such as GD GPP Pare-Pare and GD Toraja Utara II, which required fewer than 300 reserve units. The researchers explained that higher service level targets inevitably increase storage and inventory holding costs. However, higher inventory protection also reduces the risk of fertilizer shortages that could disrupt farmers’ planting schedules. “Warehouses with higher demand require stronger stock protection because they face the greatest operational risk,” the researchers stated in the study. The research also highlighted the importance of simple digital tools such as Microsoft Excel in inventory management. Through digital systems, Safety Stock and Reorder Point calculations can be updated in real time according to changing field conditions.
Fahri Anwar and his colleagues emphasized that a data-driven inventory strategy is essential because fertilizer demand patterns in South Sulawesi are heavily influenced by planting seasons, weather conditions, and national fertilizer subsidy distribution policies. As a result, inventory strategies should not be applied uniformly across all warehouses. The study is expected to have broad implications for agriculture and food security. More stable fertilizer distribution could help farmers maintain planting schedules and reduce the risk of crop failure caused by delayed fertilizer supplies. For logistics companies and fertilizer distributors, the strategy could also improve operational efficiency. Businesses would be able to allocate inventory more accurately based on each warehouse’s risk profile rather than relying solely on average annual demand. The findings also provide recommendations for regional governments and national fertilizer distribution agencies to adopt more flexible and data-based distribution policies. Warehouses with high distribution volumes should receive greater logistical support and monitoring compared to lower-demand regions. Despite its findings, the researchers acknowledged several limitations in the study. The analysis was based on only one year of operational data, which may not fully capture long-term changes in fertilizer demand patterns. In addition, the analytical process still relied on relatively simple software tools and did not incorporate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence or machine learning. For future studies, the researchers recommended integrating real-time operational data and dynamic analytical models to improve forecasting accuracy. Artificial intelligence-based approaches are considered promising for predicting demand surges and logistics disruptions more effectively.
Author Profiles
Ashar Pramono is a researcher specializing in logistics and supply chain management. This study was conducted together with Fahri Anwar, Achmad Romadin, and Irin Ramdhani from Universitas Negeri Makassar, as well as Tito Bisma May Willis from Institut Teknologi Kalimantan. The research team focuses on inventory management, logistics distribution, and regional supply chain efficiency.
Research Source
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