The research was conducted by Rahmadia, Balqis Putri Masayu, Ondi Ani Putri Vandaoni Tampubolon, Mega Metalia, and Ratna Septiyanti, all affiliated with University of Lampung. Their analysis examined Indonesia’s State Budget (APBN) performance between 2022 and 2024 using official government fiscal data and Ministry of Finance publications.
The findings matter because Indonesia is currently navigating a complex economic environment shaped by slowing commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and pressure on international trade. At the same time, the government must continue financing infrastructure development, social protection programs, education, healthcare, and economic recovery initiatives.
The researchers found that Indonesia’s net tax revenue in 2024 reached Rp1,931.6 trillion, equal to 97.12 percent of the government’s annual target. More importantly, taxes accounted for 67.76 percent of total state revenue, confirming that taxation remains the primary pillar of Indonesia’s fiscal system.
Taxes Continue to Dominate Indonesia’s Revenue Structure
Indonesia’s State Budget functions as the country’s main fiscal instrument. It supports public spending, wealth distribution, and economic stabilization. In practice, the strength of the national budget depends heavily on the government’s ability to collect taxes.
According to the study, Indonesia’s total state revenue in 2024 reached Rp2,850.6 trillion. Of that amount, tax revenue contributed Rp1,931.6 trillion, meaning more than two-thirds of government income came directly from taxation.
The researchers also identified a steady increase in tax contribution over the past three years:
- 2022: Tax contribution reached 65.37 percent of state revenue
- 2023: Tax contribution increased to 67.37 percent
- 2024: Tax contribution climbed further to 67.76 percent
This upward trend shows that Indonesia’s fiscal structure is becoming increasingly dependent on tax revenue rather than non-tax income or debt financing.
The study notes that although tax revenue in 2024 fell short of the official target by around Rp57.28 trillion, overall fiscal performance remained relatively strong. The gap was linked to moderating commodity prices and higher tax restitution payments during several reporting periods.
Global Economic Pressure Influenced Fiscal Performance
The researchers emphasized that Indonesia’s tax system is affected not only by taxpayer compliance but also by broader economic conditions. Commodity market fluctuations, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, and administrative efficiency all influence tax collection performance.
As global commodity prices weakened and international economic uncertainty persisted in 2024, the Indonesian government faced increasing pressure to maintain stable fiscal capacity.
Even under those conditions, the study found that Indonesia’s tax base remained resilient enough to support the APBN at a high level.
Rahmadia and colleagues from University of Lampung argued that the results demonstrate both strength and vulnerability within Indonesia’s fiscal structure. High tax contribution reflects strong state revenue capacity, but it also means the national budget is highly sensitive to economic shocks that could reduce tax income.
Study Used Official Government Fiscal Data
The research applied a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data collected from official APBN documents, Ministry of Finance reports, fiscal publications, and previous academic studies related to taxation and public finance.
The authors compared tax revenue performance across 2022, 2023, and 2024 by calculating contribution ratios and analyzing revenue trends over time.
Instead of using complicated statistical modeling, the study focused on interpreting official fiscal figures in a way that could explain how dependent Indonesia’s budget has become on taxation.
The researchers also connected their findings with previous Indonesian tax studies discussing tax compliance, tax administration efficiency, income tax potential, and tax amnesty programs.
According to the article, earlier studies showed that economic growth, human development indicators, and tax reform policies all influence the country’s ability to generate sustainable tax income.
Tax Reform Remains Essential
The authors warned that Indonesia cannot rely solely on tax enforcement to strengthen fiscal stability. Expanding the tax base, improving taxpayer compliance, modernizing tax administration, and maintaining healthy economic growth are equally important.
The study also highlights the continuing importance of tax reform programs, including digital tax administration systems and policies such as the Tax Amnesty and Voluntary Disclosure Program (PPS).
Although previous research found that those programs had varying levels of effectiveness, they still contributed to expanding Indonesia’s taxpayer database and improving long-term fiscal capacity.
Rahmadia and the research team from University of Lampung stated that Indonesia’s fiscal resilience depends on sustainable tax reform and broader economic support.
The researchers ethically paraphrased previous fiscal studies by explaining that stronger economic growth and improved human development indicators create better conditions for higher tax revenue collection. They argued that improving the quality of tax data and administration should become a long-term policy priority.
The findings are expected to help policymakers better understand the risks of excessive dependence on tax revenue while also strengthening strategies for sustainable fiscal management.
Implications for Government and Public Policy
The study offers several important implications for Indonesia’s policymakers and fiscal institutions:
- Indonesia’s State Budget remains highly dependent on tax revenue performance.
- Economic shocks can directly affect fiscal stability through weaker tax collection.
- Sustainable tax reform is necessary to reduce fiscal vulnerability.
- Expanding the tax base may strengthen long-term state revenue.
- Better taxpayer compliance and digital administration systems could improve fiscal efficiency.
The researchers also recommended future studies examining tax ratios, economic growth, taxpayer behavior, and fiscal policy interactions using broader empirical models.
Author Profiles
- Rahmadia - researcher in taxation and fiscal policy at University of Lampung.
- Balqis Putri Masayu - academic researcher specializing in public finance and state budgeting at University of Lampung.
- Ondi Ani Putri Vandaoni Tampubolon - researcher focusing on fiscal economics and taxation at University of Lampung.
- Mega Metalia - accounting and fiscal governance researcher at University of Lampung.
- Ratna Septiyanti - researcher in taxation policy and public administration at University of Lampung.
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