State-Owned Bank Profitability Linked to Public Deposits and Credit Risk, Indonesian Study Finds

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FORMOSA NEWS - Jakarta - A recent study by Revfitra Mutahar Paradigma and Eduardus Suharto of AFBI Perbanas, Jakarta, examines how public deposits and loan quality shaped the profitability of Indonesian state-owned banks from 2019 to 2024. Published in 2026 in the Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Digital (MINISTAL), the research shows that the ability to collect customer funds played a stronger role in bank profitability than credit risk during the pandemic and recovery period. The findings matter because state-owned banks dominate Indonesia’s financial system and influence national economic stability. 

Banking stability in a time of crisis

During the COVID-19 pandemic, financial institutions worldwide faced declining borrower income, business disruptions, and heightened uncertainty. In Indonesia, the banking sector was also affected, yet state-owned banks retained relatively strong public trust due to government backing.

This context made the relationship between funding, credit risk, and profitability especially relevant. Understanding how these factors interacted during crisis and recovery helps policymakers and bank leaders design strategies for future economic shocks.

Paradigma and Suharto focused on two key determinants of bank performance:

  • Third-Party Funds (TPF): deposits from customers such as savings, current accounts, and time deposits
  • Non-Performing Loans (NPL): loans where borrowers fail to meet repayment obligations

Both indicators directly influence liquidity, risk exposure, and the capacity of banks to generate profit.

How the research was conducted

The researchers analyzed annual financial reports from five Indonesian state-owned banks covering the period 2019–2024. This timeframe allowed them to observe banking performance before, during, and after the COVID-19 crisis.

Using a quantitative panel-data approach, they examined how changes in deposits and credit risk correlated with profitability, measured by Return on Assets (ROA). The method combines cross-bank comparisons with multi-year trends, enabling a broader view of structural changes in the banking sector.

The analysis relied on secondary financial data and statistical modeling to identify relationships between funding capacity, loan quality, and profit generation.

Key findings

The results reveal clear patterns in how Indonesian state-owned banks maintained profitability during economic disruption.

Public deposits strengthen profitability

Third-party funds showed a moderate positive relationship with ROA. Banks that successfully attracted customer deposits had greater capacity to expand lending and generate interest income. This confirms the central role of financial intermediation: deposits fuel credit, and credit generates earnings.

Credit risk reduces profit, but impact is limited

Non-performing loans displayed a negative relationship with ROA, meaning rising credit risk erodes profitability. However, the effect was relatively small during the study period. Government restructuring programs likely helped stabilize loan performance and prevent sharper declines in bank income.

Funding capacity matters more than credit risk

Compared to NPL, third-party funds had a stronger influence on profitability. This suggests that the stability of customer deposits was a key factor in maintaining bank performance through the pandemic and recovery phase.

Why these findings matter

Indonesia’s state-owned banks play a dual role as commercial institutions and policy instruments supporting national development. Their ability to remain profitable during economic turbulence affects lending capacity, investment flows, and overall financial stability.

The research highlights that maintaining public trust and deposit growth is essential for resilience. When households and firms continue to store funds in banks, liquidity remains stable and lending can continue even in uncertain times.

At the same time, the study underscores that credit risk management remains critical. Although the observed impact of NPL was relatively small, persistent loan deterioration can still weaken long-term performance.

Real-world implications

The findings offer practical insights for multiple stakeholders:

For bank management
Strengthening deposit mobilization strategies—through digital services, competitive interest rates, and customer trust—can significantly improve financial performance.

For policymakers
Crisis-response measures such as loan restructuring and liquidity support appear effective in stabilizing the banking system. Regulatory intervention can soften the negative effects of economic shocks on bank profitability.

For investors and analysts
The study suggests that funding stability may be a stronger predictor of bank performance than short-term credit risk fluctuations, particularly in state-backed institutions.

Academic insight from the researchers

Paradigma and Suharto emphasize that profitability depends on balancing funding strength and risk control. As they explain, banks generate income when deposits are efficiently transformed into productive loans, but poor credit quality can offset those gains. Their analysis shows that resilience emerges when strong deposit growth is matched with prudent lending practices. 

Author profiles

Revfitra Mutahar Paradigma holds expertise in banking performance and financial management and is affiliated with AFBI Perbanas, Jakarta. His research focuses on profitability determinants, financial intermediation, and institutional resilience.

Eduardus Suharto, also from AFBI Perbanas, specializes in financial economics and banking systems, with research interests in credit risk, financial stability, and institutional performance.

Source

Article title: Revisiting Third Party Funds and Non-Performing Loans on Profitability Before, During, and After COVID
Journal: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Digital (MINISTAL)
Year: 2026

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