Stable Chili Prices Reduce Market Risk in Mamuju’s Traditional Markets, Indonesian Study Finds
A new study by Ernawaty Mappigau and Sri Mardiyati from the Agribusiness Doctoral Program at Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar reports that prices of green and red bird’s eye chili in Mamuju’s traditional markets remained unusually stable, resulting in almost zero price risk for traders and consumers. The research was published in 2026 in the International Journal of Contemporary Sciences and offers rare good news for one of Indonesia’s most price-sensitive food commodities.
The research examined chili prices in Pasar Lama (Old Market) and Pasar Baru (New Market) in Mamuju, West Sulawesi, during January 2026. Chili prices are often associated with inflation spikes and consumer anxiety in Indonesia. This study matters because it shows that, under certain local market conditions, price volatility can be minimized, creating economic certainty for households and small traders.
Why Chili Prices Matter in Indonesia
Chili peppers are a staple ingredient in Indonesian cooking and a frequent driver of food inflation. Sudden price increases often make national headlines and directly affect household spending. In many regions, price instability harms traders’ income planning and reduces consumers’ purchasing power.
Mamuju’s traditional markets present an interesting case. Pasar Lama functions as a centralized market serving the city core, while Pasar Baru operates as a more regional and dispersed market. These structural differences usually lead to price variation. However, this research found the opposite: strong price consistency across both markets.
How the Study Was Conducted
The researchers used a quantitative descriptive approach based on official weekly price data collected from the Indonesian Center for Strategic Food Price Information (PIHPS).
Key elements of the method included:
- Observation period: 12–15 January 2026
- Commodities analyzed: Green bird’s eye chili, Curly red chili
- Markets studied: Pasar Lama and Pasar Baru, Mamuju
- Analytical tool: Coefficient of Variation (CV), a standard measure of price volatility
The Coefficient of Variation compares price fluctuations against average prices. A CV of zero means prices did not change at all during the observation period.
Key Findings: Zero Price Volatility
The study found that chili prices in both markets were completely stable throughout the week of observation.
Green bird’s eye chili
- Pasar Lama: Rp 30,000 per kilogram
- Pasar Baru: Rp 35,000 per kilogram
- Coefficient of Variation (CV): 0% in both markets
Curly red chili
- Pasar Lama: Rp 22,500 per kilogram
- Pasar Baru: Rp 25,000 per kilogram
- Coefficient of Variation (CV): 0% in both markets
According to the authors, a CV of 0% indicates no price risk. Prices did not fluctuate at all, eliminating uncertainty for both sellers and buyers.
What Explains the Price Stability?
The researchers identify several local factors that likely contributed to this rare stability:
- Consistent consumer demand, reducing pressure for price adjustments
- Sufficient supply levels, preventing shortages
- Market pricing practices that discourage sudden price changes
- Efficient local distribution, especially within traditional market networks
Even though Pasar Baru had slightly higher prices than Pasar Lama, the absence of volatility meant consumers were not exposed to unexpected price shocks.
Real-World Impact for Consumers and Traders
Price stability brings tangible benefits:
- Consumers can plan food expenses more accurately without fear of sudden chili price spikes.
- Traders face lower income risk and can manage inventory with confidence.
- Local policymakers gain evidence that traditional markets can support price stability when supply chains function well.
The findings also suggest that stable traditional markets can play a role in controlling local food inflation, especially for essential commodities.
Author Insight
According to the researchers from Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, the absence of price fluctuation reflects strong market control and benefits both traders and consumers by reducing uncertainty in daily transactions. Their analysis highlights how local market mechanisms can protect communities from broader agricultural price volatility.
Why This Study Is Important
Most studies on chili prices in Indonesia focus on volatility and risk. This research stands out by documenting a period of complete price stability, offering a valuable reference for regional food policy and market management.
The authors recommend maintaining current pricing practices and continuing close monitoring of chili supply to prevent future disruptions.
Author Profiles
Source
- Article title: Price Risk of Green and Red Bird's Eye Chili in the Old Market and New Market of Mamuju
- Journal: International Journal of Contemporary Sciences
- Year: 2026
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.55927/ms533d98
- URL Jurnal: International Journal of Contemporary Sciences (IJCS)
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