Indonesia Records Strongest Economic Response in ASEAN Driven by Exports, Investments, and Innovation
Indonesia has achieved the largest positive economic growth impact in Southeast Asia from the combined forces of exports, foreign investments, technological innovation, corruption control, and labor absorption. This finding comes from a quantitative study published in June 2026 by Jefri Irwanto, Ansofino, and Yosi Eka Putri from Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat. The comprehensive analysis, which mapped macroeconomic data across 10 ASEAN member countries from 1993 to 2023, demonstrates that geographical proximity and regional integration play a vital role in shaping national economic performance.
Economic Relevance and Background
Southeast Asian economic stability remains a central focus amid global market fluctuations and regional integration challenges. Domestic macroeconomic policies no longer operate in isolation; instead, they are closely linked to neighboring economies through trade activities, capital flows, and labor mobility. While nations strive to boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through export drives and digital adoption, structural weaknesses—such as low capital efficiency (high ICOR), persistent unemployment, and institutional corruption—frequently hamper policy effectiveness. Understanding spatial dependencies and regional interactions has become essential for policymakers seeking targeted development strategies.
Methodology and Data Approach
To evaluate these spatial dynamics, the research team from Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat combined panel data regression (Random Effect Model) with spatial data analysis using Eviews and GeoDa software. The investigation analyzed 310 secondary data samples spanning 31 years (1993–2023), with all variables measured in percentage rates. The researchers used Moran's Index (Moran's I) to test for geographic autocorrelation among countries. Additionally, they applied Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to map regional clusters into four primary patterns: High-High (HH), Low-Low (LL), High-Low (HL), and Low-High (LH).
Key Findings
Statistical testing and spatial mapping yielded several critical insights regarding regional economic dynamics:
- Indonesia Leads Positive Impact: Indonesia recorded the highest positive coefficient in ASEAN at 162.61, followed by Malaysia (116.83) and Myanmar (89.32). This indicates that Indonesia's economic structure responds most effectively to allocations in exports, investments, and technological innovation.
- Contractive Pressures in Thailand: Thailand registered the most extreme negative coefficient at -184.16, followed by Cambodia (-112.97) and Brunei Darussalam (-73.59). Structural issues in Thailand, such as high import content in exports, inefficient capital allocation to the real sector, and technological divergence, drove these negative returns.
- Proven Spatial Dependencies: Economic growth, exports, technological innovation, corruption control, and unemployment rates were confirmed as spatial variables, each exceeding the Moran's Index threshold of 0.02. This proves that economic shifts in one ASEAN nation generate direct spillover effects on neighboring countries.
- Regional Labor Clustering: Unemployment rates demonstrated the strongest positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's Index of 0.666). LISA mapping identified a High-High cluster (high unemployment surrounded by high unemployment) across Indonesia and Malaysia, alongside a Low-Low cluster in Thailand and Myanmar.
Real-World Impact and Policy Implications
The findings highlight the need for the Indonesian government to maintain positive momentum by diversifying non-oil export products, ensuring investment security, and streamlining bureaucratic processes. On a regional level, the study provides a strategic roadmap for ASEAN member states to strengthen cross-border cooperation. Key priority areas include joint labor management within High-High unemployment clusters and technology transfers to assist regions locked in Low-Low performance zones.
Highlighting the necessity of regional collaboration based on geographic data, the research team at Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat emphasized coordinated action. "Economic activities and shocks in any single ASEAN nation do not occur in isolation; they create measurable spatial spillovers across borders, making regional cooperation essential for maximizing positive growth and addressing structural imbalances," explained Jefri Irwanto, alongside Ansofino and Yosi Eka Putri.
Author Profiles
- Jefri Irwanto, S.Pd.: Lead researcher and alumnus of the Economic Education Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, specializing in Development Economics and Spatial Econometrics.
- Prof. Dr. Ansofino, M.Si.: Senior lecturer and researcher in the Economic Education Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, with expertise in Regional Economics, International Trade, and Public Policy.
- Dr. Yosi Eka Putri, M.Si.: Lecturer and researcher in the Economic Education Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, specializing in Development Economics and Labor Market Analysis.
Source Information
Article Title: Dampak Ekspor, Investasi, Inovasi Teknologi, Korupsi dan Tingkat Pengangguran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Negara-Negara ASEANJournal: Indonesian Journal of Economic & Management Sciences (IJEMS), Vol. 4, No. 3, 2026, Pages 1321–1342
Publication Year: 2026
DOI:
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