The research matters because choosing a stock involves more than identifying companies with strong financial performance. Investors also need to consider market conditions and timing. A financially healthy company may not always be the right stock to buy immediately if its market price is facing unfavorable momentum or short-term pressure.
LQ45 provides an important setting for this analysis. The index comprises highly liquid companies with relatively large market capitalization and strong financial characteristics. However, being included in LQ45 does not automatically make every constituent equally attractive to investors. Differences in profitability, valuation, liquidity, business performance, and stock-price movements still require careful analysis.
Combining Company Quality With Market Timing
Haeqal and Patrisia used a descriptive quantitative approach based on secondary data. Financial information came from annual reports published through the Indonesia Stock Exchange, while historical stock-price information was collected from TradingView, RTI Business, and Stockbit.
The observation period covered four years, from 2022 through 2025. The researchers focused on companies that consistently appeared in the LQ45 Index, had complete financial and historical stock-price data, and recorded positive revenue growth during the observation period.
The analysis was conducted in stages. First, companies were screened according to revenue growth. The researchers then assessed financial performance using 10 fundamental indicators:
- Price Earnings Ratio (PER)
- Book Value per Share (BVPS)
- Return on Equity (ROE)
- Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR)
- Dividend Yield (DY)
- Price to Book Value (PBV)
- Current Assets (CA)
- Gross Debt to Sales (GDS)
- Current Ratio (CR)
- Earnings per Share (EPS)
Each indicator was compared with its corresponding industry average. A company received one point when its performance exceeded the industry benchmark and zero when it did not. The accumulated scores were then used to rank the companies.
The stocks with the strongest fundamental scores were subsequently examined using technical indicators. The researchers used Moving Average (MA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands to evaluate price trends, market momentum, and volatility.
Six LQ45 Stocks Passed Fundamental Screening
The initial population consisted of 45 LQ45 companies. Twenty-seven companies remained consistently listed in the index throughout 2022–2025 and had complete financial and historical stock-price data. Twenty-two companies met the positive-revenue-growth criterion. The subsequent fundamental assessment produced six companies for technical analysis.
The six selected stocks and their fundamental scores were:
- ANTM — PT Aneka Tambang Tbk: 8 points
- AMRT — PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk: 7 points
- ICBP — PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk: 7 points
- BBCA — PT Bank Central Asia Tbk: 6 points
- BBRI — PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk: 6 points
- BMRI — PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk: 6 points
The selected companies represent several major sectors of Indonesia's economy, including financial services, consumer goods, retail, and basic materials.
The technical assessment produced similarly favorable results. AMRT showed a positive price trend supported by its technical indicators. ANTM displayed an upward trend and positive momentum. BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI also showed upward trends with positive momentum, while ICBP maintained relatively stable technical performance with positive momentum and moderate volatility.
BBCA Demonstrates the Integrated Buy Signal
BBCA was presented as an example of how the integrated framework works. The bank received a fundamental score of 6 and simultaneously generated a positive technical signal. Based on the combination of the two assessments, BBCA was classified as Buy in the study's example investment decision.
The technical chart presented in the article shows BBCA's price remaining above the Moving Average, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD produced a bullish crossover accompanied by positive histogram values, suggesting strengthening upward momentum. Bollinger Bands also showed that the price remained within the upper trading range without reaching an extreme overbought condition.
For Haeqal and Patrisia of Universitas Negeri Padang, the value of the approach lies in combining two different questions investors face: whether a company is financially strong and whether current market conditions provide a favorable opportunity to execute a transaction. Fundamental analysis addresses company quality, while technical analysis helps assess market timing.
A Framework, Not a Guarantee of Profit
The findings should not be interpreted as a guarantee that the six stocks will generate profits. The researchers emphasize that strong corporate financial performance does not necessarily create an immediate buying opportunity.
Short-term investor sentiment, price momentum, and market fluctuations can cause a stock's market price to move differently from its underlying financial value. Combining fundamental and technical analysis is therefore presented as a way to make investment decisions more structured and reduce uncertainty rather than eliminate investment risk.
The framework may be particularly useful for investors who want to avoid depending exclusively on either financial ratios or price charts. In practical terms, the approach first asks which companies have stronger financial characteristics, then considers whether market conditions support an investment transaction.
The study also has limitations. Its analysis focuses on companies that remained LQ45 constituents throughout the 2022–2025 period and uses 10 fundamental ratios and three technical indicators. The authors recommend that future research expand the observation period, examine companies from other sectors and indices, and incorporate macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic growth. They also suggest exploring additional technical indicators, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.
Author Profiles
Muhammad Arif Haeqal is the first author and corresponding author affiliated with the Master of Management Program, Universitas Negeri Padang.
Dina Patrisia is the second author and is also affiliated with the Master of Management Program, Universitas Negeri Padang. The article does not state the authors' academic degrees or specific professional fields of expertise beyond their affiliation with the Master of Management Program, so those details are not added here.
Research Source
Article title: Integration of Fundamental and Technical Analysis for Stock Investment Decision Making: Evidence from LQ45 Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange
0 Komentar