Digital Capacity Management for Sustainable Tourism: A Breakthrough in Overtourism Control in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park

Figure Ilustration AI

FORMOSA NEWS - Medan - AI and Sensors Offer Strategic Solution to Overtourism in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park. A new study by Kartini Harahap from Universitas Sumatera Utara demonstrates how integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors can reduce ecological pressure by 35% in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park. Published in July 2026 in the Asian Journal of Management Analytics, the research presents a Digital Carrying Capacity Management (DCCM) model designed to transform static visitor quotas into real-time, data-driven management. The findings address severe environmental degradation in the park, where peak daily visitors reach up to 9,000 far exceeding the safe ecological limit of 3,500.

Background: Smart Tech Meets Conservation
Nature-based tourism in Indonesia faces growing tension between economic growth and environmental preservation. Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park, spanning 50,276 hectares, experienced an influx of over 368,000 visitors in 2024 alone. Unregulated tourist surges have caused severe traffic congestion, vegetation loss, air pollution, and social friction with local Tenggerese communities. While global destinations such as Venice and Barcelona utilize smart technology to regulate visitor traffic, conservation areas in developing countries often rely on manual ticketing and reactive site closures. This study fills that technological gap by applying digital governance to protect sensitive ecosystems while preserving the visitor experience.

Research Methodology
The study utilized an explanatory sequential mixed-method design combining computer simulations, expert evaluations, and machine learning models:

• System Dynamics Modeling (SDM): Simulated tourist traffic, environmental load, and infrastructure capacities from 2024 to 2030 using Vensim DSS software.
  
• Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (Fuzzy-MCDM): Gathered input from 12 environmental experts, government officials, and local representatives to weight ecological, social, and technological factors using MATLAB.
  
• Predictive AI: Processed real-time sensor and environmental data across 21 variables using machine learning models (Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression) to calculate the Digital Carrying Capacity Index (DCCI).
  

Primary data was collected from 300 park visitors, managers, and residents across three major tourist zones (Cemorolawang, Pasir Sea, and Ranu Pani) between May and September 2024.

Key Findings
The study evaluated three capacity management approaches and highlighted the performance of digital infrastructure:

• Smart Capacity Optimization (SCO) Outperforms Traditional Models: The AI-driven SCO scenario reduced overall tourism pressure by 35% and increased ecological capacity efficiency by 28% compared to the unmanaged Business-as-Usual (BAU) model.
  
• Technology Drives Sustainability: Fuzzy-AHP analysis revealed that digital factors contributed the highest weight to sustainable management (0.521), outranking ecological (0.482) and social factors (0.414). Active IoT sensors (weight: 0.209), data accuracy (0.189), and AI predictions (0.167) were identified as the most crucial components.
  
• High AI Accuracy: The Gradient Boosting algorithm proved most effective at predicting overtourism risks, achieving 94.2% accuracy and an ROC-AUC score of 0.95.
  
• Dynamic Indexing System: The resulting Digital Carrying Capacity Index (DCCI) successfully classified site risk levels into Sustainable Zone (DCCI < 1.00), Alert Zone (1.00–1.25), and Overtourism Risk Zone (> 1.25).
  

Real-World Impact and Policy Implications
Implementing the Digital Carrying Capacity Management system offers direct benefits for park authorities, policymakers, and local communities:

• Real-Time Visitor Control: Park managers can deploy automated, dynamic booking quotas that shift entry schedules based on active sensor data rather than complete park shutdowns.
  
• National Policy Blueprint: The DCCI framework provides a standardized model for Indonesia's Ministry of Environment and Forestry to manage other priority destinations facing overtourism.
  
• Community and Climate Protection: Controlled traffic flows mitigate vehicular carbon emissions and preserve local water quality, supporting global goals including SDG 9 (Innovation), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
  

Author Profile

Kartini Harahap, M.Si. Lecturer and Researcher, Universitas Sumatera Utara. Specializes in digital transformation, sustainable tourism management, and public administration. 

Source
Kartini Harahap. Digital Capacity Management for Sustainable Tourism: A Breakthrough in Overtourism Control in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park. Asian Journal of Management Analytics (AJMA). Vol. 5, No. 3, Tahun 2026 Hal. 511-.528.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.55927/ajma.v5i3.16585
URL: https://journal.formosapublisher.org/index.php/ajma