Jakarta — Ethnicity, religion, race, and intergroup (SARA)-based horizontal conflicts are no longer seen merely as social disputes. A recent study by Fahrunnisa, Anang Puji Utama, and Bayu Setiawan from Universitas Pertahanan Republik Indonesia in 2026 reveals that identity-based conflicts should be recognized as non-military threats to national security. The findings introduce a new perspective: social conflict can serve as an early warning system before escalating into a wider crisis.
Published in the East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, the study explains that SARA conflicts have often been treated as social or political issues addressed only after violence occurs. However, these conflicts usually develop gradually and leave clear early signals.
Indonesia, as a multicultural country, remains vulnerable to identity-based tensions. Differences in religion, ethnicity, and social groups are often intensified by economic inequality, political competition, and the uncontrolled spread of digital information.
The researchers found that SARA conflicts follow a gradual pattern. They often begin with stronger group sentiments, declining tolerance, hate-driven narratives, and identity-based mobilization. From a defense perspective, these patterns can become strategic indicators of emerging threats.
Using a qualitative library research approach, the team analyzed scientific journals, policy documents, and national laws related to social conflict, national security, and defense systems. This method allowed them to map the broader relationship between social tensions and state stability.
The study highlights that SARA conflicts can weaken social cohesion, reduce public trust in government institutions, and threaten national integration. If ignored, such conflicts may evolve into broader security crises.
According to the authors, early indicators include sharper social polarization, rising intolerance, weaker intergroup interaction, and the rapid spread of provocative digital content. Monitoring these indicators could help governments intervene before violence breaks out.
The authors argue that conflict should no longer be seen only as a problem to resolve after it happens. Instead, it should be recognized as a strategic signal for national security planning.
The research also proposes a shift from conflict response to conflict anticipation. This means governments should prioritize prevention and early detection rather than relying solely on post-conflict management. Such an approach could significantly reduce social, economic, and political losses.
For society, the findings underline the importance of dialogue, tolerance, and digital literacy to prevent identity-based provocation. For policymakers, the study offers a framework to strengthen collaboration among security agencies, local governments, religious leaders, and civil society.
In today’s digital age, national threats do not always come from military forces. Sometimes, they emerge from within society itself, through broken trust and deepening identity divisions. Recognizing these early symptoms may be the key to preserving national unity.
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