The research was conducted by Dimas Andrianto, Sukendra Martha, Aris Poniman, Asep Adang Supriyadi, and Dangan Waluyo. Their findings were published in 2026 in the International Journal of Sustainable Applied Sciences.
The study examined emergency Weather Modification Operations (WMO) carried out between December 10 and December 22, 2025, following destructive flash floods in West Sumatra on November 28, 2025. Researchers concluded that the cloud-seeding strategy helped lower the risk of additional flooding in the Bukit Barisan mountain region, where steep terrain and rapid water runoff often intensify hydrometeorological disasters.
The findings are significant because Indonesia faces increasingly frequent extreme weather events linked to climate variability and changing rainfall patterns. Mountainous regions such as West Sumatra are especially vulnerable because heavy rainfall can quickly overwhelm rivers and trigger flash floods, landslides, and debris flows.
According to the researchers, traditional structural mitigation systems such as dams and levees are often insufficient in highland regions where water moves rapidly from upstream to downstream areas. As a result, emergency weather modification has become an important non-structural disaster mitigation tool in Indonesia.
Unlike previous cloud-seeding operations conducted in flat regions such as Jakarta or forest fire zones in Sumatra and Kalimantan, the West Sumatra mission involved extreme operational challenges. Aircraft had to fly through narrow valleys surrounded by mountains while avoiding dangerous cloud formations and maintaining strict flight safety limits.
The research team based its operations at Minangkabau International Airport in Padang Pariaman. A Cessna Caravan aircraft identified as PK-AKR was used throughout the mission, carrying up to 1,000 kilograms of seeding material per flight.
Researchers analyzed operational logs, flight tracks, radar imagery, and rainfall data during the 13-day emergency period. The study used a qualitative field-study approach combined with spatial analysis of aircraft routes and weather radar data from Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, commonly known as BMKG.
The operation recorded:
- 69 flight sorties
- 128 total flight hours
- 68 tons of cloud-seeding materials
- 51 tons of Sodium Chloride (NaCl)
- 17 tons of Calcium Oxide (CaO)
The researchers found that combining NaCl and CaO created a more effective cloud intervention strategy than using salt alone.
NaCl was used to accelerate rainfall formation, encouraging clouds to release rain earlier over the ocean and coastal areas. CaO, meanwhile, functioned as a cloud disruption agent. The chemical reaction generated heat energy capable of weakening vertical cloud development and reducing the growth of dangerous cumulonimbus storm clouds.
According to the study, this hybrid strategy was especially important in West Sumatra because mountain-induced atmospheric lifting causes clouds to grow rapidly into severe storm systems.
The research identified a “Sectoral Interception Strategy” as the operation’s core tactical approach. Aircraft focused seeding efforts over the western and northwestern sectors of West Sumatra, particularly above marine and coastal zones before rain clouds reached the Bukit Barisan mountains.
Radar imagery showed that many storm clouds released rainfall over the sea and western coastline instead of continuing inland toward disaster-prone upstream areas.
The study reported that areas such as Padang Pariaman, Agam, and West Pasaman experienced high seeding intensity. Researchers observed that rainfall in mountainous upstream regions remained mostly within light-to-moderate categories even during periods of strong cloud development.
Weather radar analysis also revealed that cloud systems weakened significantly after seeding interventions. By afternoon and evening hours, many storm formations had dissipated before reaching critical mountain watersheds.
The researchers noted that the operation’s success depended heavily on accurate real-time weather forecasting and radar monitoring from BMKG. Global weather prediction models alone were considered insufficient because the Bukit Barisan mountain range creates highly localized microclimates.
Operational timing also played a critical role. The effective weather modification window was limited to approximately 07:00 to 16:00 Western Indonesian Time due to rapid cloud growth, mountain fog, and aviation safety restrictions.
Pilots faced additional challenges caused by Minimum Safe Altitude (MSA) limits in mountainous terrain. Aircraft maneuverability became particularly difficult near Mount Marapi and Mount Singgalang, where steep cliffs and unstable weather conditions narrowed safe flight corridors.
The researchers stated that even short operational delays could allow cumulus clouds to rapidly develop into dangerous cumulonimbus storms.
“Rainfall redistribution in mountainous disaster zones requires operational strategies that differ from standard lowland weather modification procedures,” the authors from Indonesian Defense University explained in their analysis.
The study recommends the development of specialized weather modification protocols for mountainous regions in Indonesia. Suggested improvements include:
- More conservative flight safety envelopes for mountain operations
- Mandatory onboard radar access for aircraft crews
- Intensive morning flight schedules before afternoon storm formation
- Greater integration of AI-driven radar systems
- Exploration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for seeding missions
Researchers also encouraged future studies to quantify the exact percentage of rainfall reduction directly caused by weather modification compared with natural atmospheric changes.
The findings may influence future disaster mitigation policies in Indonesia, particularly as climate-related extreme rainfall events continue to increase. The study also highlights the growing role of weather engineering technologies in protecting vulnerable communities from hydrometeorological disasters.
Author Profile
Dimas Andrianto is a researcher affiliated with Indonesian Defense University with expertise in disaster mitigation, atmospheric operations, and weather modification technology. The research team also includes Sukendra Martha, Aris Poniman, Asep Adang Supriyadi, and Dangan Waluyo, who specialize in aviation operations, disaster response, and meteorological analysis.
Source
“Analysis of Weather Modification Operations as Mitigation for Hydrometeorological Disasters in West Sumatra: A Case Study of the December 2025 Emergency Response.” Published in International Journal of Sustainable Applied Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2026.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59890/ijsas.v4i4.435
URL: https://dmimultitechpublisher.my.id/index.php/ijsas
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