Maluku Rice Farmers Face High Harvest Risks Amid Climate and Pest Threats
Lowland rice farmers in Waitonipa Village, East Kobi District, Central Maluku Regency, are facing severe production uncertainty driven by climate change, pest outbreaks, and rising farming costs, according to a 2026 study by researchers from Pattimura University. The research, conducted by Sholiha Hamidah, Martha Turukay, and Johanna M. Luhukay, found that rice farming in the region carries an extremely high production risk, threatening the income stability of farming households.
The findings were published in 2026 in the Internasional Journal of Integrative Sciences (IJIS). Researchers analyzed the economic and production risks faced by rice farmers during the first planting season of 2025 in Waitonipa Village, an agricultural community in eastern Indonesia where many families depend heavily on wetland rice cultivation for their livelihoods.
Rice Farming Remains Vital for Food Security
Rice farming continues to play a central role in Indonesia’s food security system and rural economy. In Maluku Province, lowland rice cultivation supports household income while contributing to regional food supplies. However, fluctuating harvests have become increasingly common in recent years due to changing weather patterns and pest attacks.
The study highlighted that Central Maluku Regency remains one of the province’s largest rice-producing regions after Buru Regency. Yet annual rice production has shown major fluctuations. Data from the Central Statistics Agency showed that Central Maluku produced more than 50,000 thousand tons of rice in 2020, but output dropped significantly by 2023 before partially recovering in 2024.
Researchers noted that unpredictable rainfall, prolonged wet seasons, flooding, drought conditions, and limited access to modern farming technology have increased uncertainty for rice growers across the province. These conditions directly affect crop yields and farmer income.
Study Examined 45 Rice Farmers
The research team used a census sampling method involving all 45 rice farmers in Waitonipa Village. Data collection combined field observations, interviews, questionnaires, and documentation from local statistical agencies and agricultural records.
The researchers applied quantitative analysis to measure production levels, farming income, and economic risk. Risk levels were calculated using the coefficient of variation method, which measures the scale of production and income fluctuations.
Farm income was calculated by comparing total revenue against production costs, including labor, fertilizer, pesticides, harvesting expenses, taxes, and land rental fees.
Farmers Earned Low Returns Despite High Costs
The study found that the average rice production reached only 1,836 kilograms per planting season. Farmers sold rice at an average price of IDR 6,853 per kilogram. Total average revenue reached around IDR 12.58 million per season.
However, production expenses consumed nearly all of that revenue.
Average farming costs included:
- Seed costs: approximately IDR 586,666
- Fertilizer costs: approximately IDR 1.33 million
- Pesticide costs: approximately IDR 1.37 million
- Labor costs: more than IDR 5.24 million
- Harvesting costs: approximately IDR 2.76 million
- Land rental and fixed costs: nearly IDR 2 million combined
After subtracting total production costs, the average farmer income was only around IDR 278,129 per season, showing how narrow farming profit margins have become in the region.
Pest Attacks and Extreme Weather Triggered Major Risks
The most alarming finding involved the extremely high production risk faced by farmers.
The study recorded a production risk coefficient of variation of 90.90 percent, indicating severe instability in harvest outcomes. According to the researchers, this means farmers face a very high probability of production losses during each planting cycle.
Income risk was also categorized as high, with a coefficient of variation of 3.08 percent.
Researchers identified several key causes behind the unstable harvests:
- Brown planthopper infestations linked to humid rainy-season conditions
- Stem borer attacks that damaged rice stalks and reduced yields
- Snail infestations during the early vegetative growth phase
- Excessive rainfall and irregular planting seasons
- High dependence on traditional cultivation methods
The rainy season in early 2025 created ideal conditions for brown planthopper outbreaks. High humidity and warm temperatures accelerated pest reproduction, while excessive nitrogen fertilizer use weakened rice stalks and increased vulnerability to “hopperburn,” a condition that causes rice plants to dry out as if burned.
The research concluded that many farmers experienced crop failure or reduced yields because of these combined environmental pressures.
Findings Carry Wider Implications for Indonesian Agriculture
The study provides an important warning for policymakers and agricultural planners in Indonesia, particularly in eastern provinces vulnerable to climate variability.
Without stronger risk management systems, small-scale rice farmers may struggle to maintain sustainable production. The researchers emphasized the need for improved pest management, climate adaptation strategies, better irrigation planning, and wider access to agricultural technology.
The findings also highlight the economic fragility of farming households that depend almost entirely on seasonal rice production. Even moderate production losses can quickly erase profits because operational costs remain high.
According to the research team from Pattimura University, farming risks in Waitonipa Village are no longer isolated incidents but reflect broader agricultural challenges facing many rural regions in Indonesia. The authors noted that climate instability and pest outbreaks are increasingly interconnected and require coordinated responses from farmers, local governments, and agricultural agencies.
Researcher Profiles
Sholiha Hamidah is an agricultural researcher affiliated with Pattimura University, specializing in agricultural economics and rural farming systems.
Martha Turukay is a researcher from Pattimura University whose work focuses on farming productivity and agricultural development.
Johanna M. Luhukay is an academic researcher at Pattimura University with expertise in agricultural risk analysis and rural economic sustainability.
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