Published in the International Journal of Management and Business Intelligence (IJMBI), the study examines how anticipatory governance builds the adaptive public management capacity of the Samarinda City Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) in responding to urban flood risks. These findings are important because urban flooding is influenced by multiple changing factors, including rainfall, drainage conditions, land-use changes, residential development, and community vulnerability.
Samarinda has experienced recurring flood risks. On August 17, 2024, heavy rainfall and overflowing drainage systems caused flooding in North Samarinda and Sungai Pinang districts, affecting 183 people, 49 households, and 42 houses. These impacts demonstrate why flood management cannot rely solely on emergency responses after water enters residential areas.
According to Hubaib and Aswin, public organizations need the capacity to recognize early warning signals, prepare alternative scenarios, integrate risk information, coordinate across institutions, and learn from previous disasters.
Monitoring Risks Before Floods Escalate
The researchers used a qualitative single-case study approach focused on the Samarinda City Regional Disaster Management Agency. They conducted in-depth interviews with 15 informants: three structural officials, four technical personnel, four field officers, and four external stakeholders.
The researchers also collected data through observation and document analysis. The documents included strategic plans, standard operating procedures, flood reports, risk maps, early warning records, coordination documents, and post-disaster evaluation reports.
The findings show that BPBD Samarinda already monitors several indicators of flood risk. Weather forecasts, rainfall information, community reports, drainage conditions, historical flood locations, and field observations help officials identify areas requiring closer attention.
This information supports the early preparation of personnel, equipment, logistics, and communication channels before conditions worsen.
One informant explained that the agency no longer always waits for floodwater to enter residential areas. When rainfall information and reports from vulnerable locations indicate rising risks, personnel, equipment, and communication arrangements can be prepared earlier.
However, the system still faces important limitations. Information comes from multiple channels with different update schedules, formats, and levels of detail. Officers must often verify information manually before using it to guide decisions.
Early Warning Systems Need More Consistent Standards
The study found that BPBD has procedures for personnel deployment, evacuation, logistics, communication, and emergency operations. However, detailed scenarios for different levels of flooding have not been fully documented.
Clear thresholds for determining when to escalate emergency responses are not consistently established. Decisions still depend heavily on rainfall, water levels, road access, the number of affected residents, and reports from field personnel.
Early warnings are distributed through messaging groups, social media, local government officials, community representatives, and field officers. These channels can accelerate communication, but residents do not always receive or respond to warnings in the same way.
In some situations, field officers must confirm conditions directly before evacuation or assistance begins.
These findings suggest that early warning effectiveness depends on more than how quickly a message is delivered. Information must also be understandable, trusted, relevant to local conditions, and connected to clear protective actions.
Fragmented Data Remains a Major Challenge
One of the study’s most significant findings is the fragmentation of flood-risk information.
Relevant data are available across different institutions, including meteorological forecasts, rainfall records, drainage conditions, spatial maps, historical flood reports, road accessibility, population vulnerability, evacuation needs, and community observations. However, these data are not consistently stored in a shared system.
Differences in formats, definitions, update schedules, and storage methods require technical personnel to combine and verify information manually.
As a result, BPBD has limited capacity to generate a comprehensive, real-time picture of rainfall, inundation, drainage conditions, exposed populations, road access, and available emergency resources.
The findings emphasize that the challenge is not necessarily a complete lack of data. Public agencies also need data that can be accessed, understood, updated, and used collaboratively across institutions.
An integrated flood-risk information platform could help local authorities assess changing conditions more quickly and coordinate decisions using a shared understanding of risks.
Emergency Coordination Works, but Prevention Requires More Collaboration
Interagency coordination emerged as one of the stronger elements of Samarinda’s flood management system. Once emergency arrangements are activated, relevant institutions can exchange information, distribute responsibilities, and mobilize personnel and resources.
However, coordination becomes more intensive during emergencies than during prevention and long-term risk reduction.
After floodwaters recede, agencies often return to their individual sectoral responsibilities. Yet problems involving drainage, spatial planning, infrastructure maintenance, and community preparedness require sustained cooperation across institutions.
Community participation is also evident in local reporting, evacuation assistance, volunteer activities, and warning dissemination. Nevertheless, residents are not consistently involved in scenario development, risk assessment, preparedness planning, and post-disaster evaluation.
The study suggests that collaboration should continue throughout the disaster management cycle, not only when an emergency is underway.
Turning Disaster Experience into Institutional Learning
Previous floods have helped improve communication, equipment preparation, personnel deployment, evacuation practices, and the identification of vulnerable locations.
However, lessons learned are not always translated into revised procedures, assigned corrective actions, implementation deadlines, training materials, or organizational knowledge that can be accessed by different units.
This means that learning still depends substantially on the experiences of individual personnel and operational teams, rather than being fully embedded in the organization’s systems.
Hubaib and Aswin’s findings highlight the importance of converting experience into documented procedures, shared information, training, decision-making standards, and policies that can be reused in future emergencies.
Post-disaster evaluations should identify responsible units, establish deadlines for corrective actions, and monitor whether recommendations have been implemented.
Operational Flexibility Helps Speed Up Responses
The study also found that field officers can adjust evacuation routes, equipment placement, personnel assignments, and logistical priorities according to changing conditions.
This flexibility is important because flood situations can change rapidly. Roads may become inaccessible, water levels may rise, or another location may suddenly require more urgent assistance.
However, flexible decisions depend on timely and accurate information. When reports from several locations arrive at different times, personnel and equipment allocations may need to be adjusted repeatedly.
The researchers therefore highlight the need to support operational discretion with clear authority, shared risk categories, resource-allocation criteria, and real-time documentation.
A combination of professional judgment and standardized decision-making procedures can help ensure that rapid responses remain consistent, traceable, and accountable.
Moving from Reactive Response to Anticipatory Governance
Overall, the study by Futum Hubaib and Akbar Aswin shows that anticipatory governance has begun to strengthen the adaptive management capacity of BPBD Samarinda. Risk monitoring, early resource preparation, interagency coordination, and flexible field decisions have supported organizational preparedness and faster emergency responses.
However, these capabilities remain only partially institutionalized. Risk information is fragmented across institutions, scenario planning and warning thresholds are not fully standardized, and post-disaster lessons are not consistently converted into formal procedural changes.
The researchers recommend developing an integrated flood-risk information platform that combines meteorological, drainage, spatial, population, accessibility, and community data.
Local authorities should also establish measurable warning levels, formalize response scenarios for different flood conditions, strengthen coordination before and after disasters, and involve communities in risk assessment and evaluation.
These measures could help Samarinda move beyond a predominantly reactive approach toward public management that is more anticipatory, collaborative, adaptive, and learning-oriented.
The findings also offer lessons for other flood-prone cities. Strengthening disaster preparedness requires more than emergency equipment and response personnel. It also requires reliable information, clear institutional responsibilities, continuous cooperation, and systems that turn past experience into better decisions.
Author Profiles
Futum Hubaib and Akbar Aswin are affiliated with Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda, Indonesia. The article information provided does not specify their academic degrees or individual areas of expertise; these details are therefore not included to maintain accuracy.
Research Source
Hubaib, Futum, & Aswin, Akbar. (2026). “Building Adaptive Public Management Capacity through Anticipatory Governance in Responding to Complex Public Sector Challenges.” International Journal of Management and Business Intelligence (IJMBI).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59890/ijmbi.v4i5.46
E-ISSN: 3025-5589
Journal website: https://journalijmbi.my.id/index.php/ijmbi
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