Accelerated Tax Restitution Proves Key to Boosting Post-Crisis Economic Recovery in Indonesia

Natalia Sihombing S.Pd Rabu, Agustus 12, 2026
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FORMOSA NEWS

The policy of accelerating tax refunds or tax restitution has proven to be an effective fiscal instrument in boosting business liquidity and accelerating national post-crisis economic recovery. This was revealed by Novita and Wendy from Universitas Widya Dharma Pontianak through their recent research analyzing data spanning from 2010 to 2025. The study found that timely tax refund disbursements successfully strengthen corporate cash flows, enabling productive activities and economic growth to bounce back quickly after experiencing severe pressure.

The COVID-19 pandemic previously dealt a heavy blow to the Indonesian economy, recording a growth contraction of -2.07% in 2020 due to activity restrictions, declining purchasing power, and disruptions in global supply chains. To overcome this crisis, the government relied on various fiscal stimuli, one of which was accelerating the tax refund process for taxpayers. This policy was designed to provide the business sector with additional working capital to maintain operations, preserve workforce stability, and expand investments.

In examining this phenomenon, the study employed a quantitative approach utilizing time-series regression analysis based on official data from the Directorate General of Taxes, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and Bank Indonesia. This empirical model tested the causal relationship between the tax restitution policy and economic recovery, while accounting for inflation and the benchmark interest rate (BI Rate).

Statistical analysis revealed several key findings:

  • Positive Impact of Tax Restitution: Every increase in tax restitution proved to have a positive and significant effect on economic recovery, where a 1% increase in tax restitution directly contributed to a 0.018% rise in economic growth.
  • Impact of Inflationary Pressure: Inflation was recorded as having a negative and significant effect on economic recovery, as price surges reduce public purchasing power and increase production costs.
  • Role of the Benchmark Interest Rate: The BI Rate also exerted a negative and significant impact, where high interest rates tend to dampen investment interest and suppress borrowing expenditures for both businesses and households.
  • Long-Term Economic Resilience: Based on the coefficient of determination, 78.1% of the variation in economic recovery can be explained by the model involving tax restitution, inflation, and the BI Rate.

Indonesia's successful economic recovery, rebounding to over 5% in the subsequent years, highlights the importance of synergy between fiscal and monetary policies. Novita and Wendy emphasized that tax restitution is not merely a routine tax administration procedure, but a crucial economic policy instrument that helps the business world navigate crisis pressures. The government and tax authorities are encouraged to continually improve the efficiency, transparency, and digitization speed of restitution services so that their benefits can be widely felt by the public and business players.

Author Profiles

  • Novita – Researcher and academic at Universitas Widya Dharma Pontianak.
  • Wendy – Researcher and academic at Universitas Widya Dharma Pontianak.

Research Sources:

Natalia Sihombing S.Pd

Diposting oleh Natalia Sihombing S.Pd

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