University of Abuja Study Finds Growth-Stage Body Weight Predicts Chicken Size Better Than Hatch Weight
A new study by Jubril A.E., Ebenezer O.I., and Alagbe J.O. from University of Abuja, Nigeria shows that the body weight of chickens at specific growth stages predicts their later body weight more accurately than their weight at hatching. The research, published in 2026 in the International Journal of Business and Management Practices (IJBMP), analyzes growth patterns of three widely used chicken strains—Aco Black, Noiler, and ISA Brown—while examining differences between male and female birds. The findings provide practical insights for poultry farmers seeking better tools to forecast production performance and improve farm management.
The study highlights how growth-stage body weight and sex differences influence prediction accuracy in poultry production. Understanding these patterns can help farmers make better decisions regarding breeding, feeding strategies, and production planning.
Why Predicting Chicken Body Weight Matters
Poultry production is one of the most important sectors in global food systems. Chicken meat and eggs provide an affordable and accessible source of animal protein for millions of people worldwide.
However, chickens do not grow at identical rates. Differences in genetic strain and biological sex often result in variations in growth performance and final body weight. These variations create challenges for farmers trying to predict production outcomes.
Accurate prediction of chicken growth allows poultry farmers to:
-select high-performing birds for breeding
-optimize feeding programs
-estimate the best harvest or market time
-improve production efficiency and profitability
Traditionally, many farmers use hatch weight, or the weight of chicks at birth, as an early indicator of future growth performance. Yet, this measurement often fails to provide reliable predictions.
To address this issue, researchers from the University of Abuja examined whether body weight at later growth stages offers stronger predictive power for estimating the final weight of chickens.
Research Method: Monitoring 360 Chicks Across Eight Weeks
The study was conducted at the research farm of the University of Abuja in Nigeria. Researchers used 360 day-old chicks from three different poultry strains:
-Aco Black
-Noiler
-ISA Brown
Each strain included 120 birds, evenly divided between 60 males and 60 females. All birds were raised under the same management conditions to ensure reliable comparisons.
The researchers recorded weekly body weight measurements from hatch to eight weeks of age.
They then applied regression analysis, a statistical method used to examine how body weight at earlier stages predicts weight at later stages.
The analysis focused on two key questions:
-How accurately early body weight predicts later growth performance
-Whether prediction accuracy differs between male and female chickens
This approach allowed the researchers to determine the most reliable stage for predicting future body weight.
Key Findings of the Study
The study revealed that hatch weight alone is a weak predictor of future growth. Instead, body weight recorded during the middle stages of growth provides significantly stronger predictions.
Several important findings emerged:
1. Hatch Weight Shows Weak Predictive Power
The relationship between hatch weight and later body weight was relatively weak across all strains.
The coefficient of determination (R²), which measures prediction strength, was below 0.20, indicating limited predictive reliability.
2. Mid-Growth Weight Provides Stronger Predictions
Body weight measured during later growth stages showed a much stronger relationship with final body weight.
For example:
-In Aco Black chickens, body weight at week 4 predicted week-7 weight with high accuracy (R² = 0.779).
-The same week-4 measurement predicted week-8 weight (R² = 0.518).
3. Noiler Chickens Showed the Strongest Prediction Model
The Noiler strain demonstrated the strongest predictive relationship.
Body weight at week 5 predicted week-8 weight with very high accuracy (R² = 0.867), indicating a strong relationship between mid-growth weight and final size.
4. Male and Female Chickens Show Different Growth Patterns
The analysis also revealed sex-specific growth patterns.
Examples include:
-In male Aco Black chickens, body weight at week 5 predicted week-6 weight with R² = 0.674.
-In female Aco Black chickens, body weight at week 1 predicted week-4 weight with R² = 0.463.
These results suggest that prediction models should account for sex differences to improve accuracy.
5. ISA Brown Shows Weaker Prediction Relationships
While prediction patterns were still present in ISA Brown chickens, the relationships were generally weaker than those observed in Aco Black and Noiler strains.
This may reflect differences in genetic characteristics and production purpose among chicken strains.
Implications for Poultry Production
The findings offer valuable insights for improving modern poultry management and production planning.
Using body weight measurements from key growth stages, poultry farmers can:
-forecast bird performance more accurately
-adjust feeding strategies for optimal growth
-select superior breeding stock
-plan market timing more effectively
According to the researchers from the University of Abuja, prediction models that incorporate growth-stage measurements and sex differences provide better forecasting accuracy than those relying solely on hatch weight.
Such approaches can help poultry producers make data-driven decisions that increase productivity and economic returns.
In large-scale poultry systems, more accurate growth prediction models may also contribute to improved production efficiency, reduced feed waste, and better sustainability in the poultry industry.
Author Profiles
Jubril A.E. is a researcher at the University of Abuja, Nigeria, specializing in poultry production, animal breeding, and growth performance analysis in livestock.
Ebenezer O.I. is an academic researcher from the University of Abuja whose work focuses on animal science, poultry production systems, and statistical modeling in livestock research.
Alagbe J.O. is a researcher known for work in animal nutrition and sustainable poultry production systems, with an emphasis on improving livestock productivity in developing economies.
Together, the three researchers collaborate on studies aimed at developing practical scientific tools to improve poultry farming efficiency and productivity.
Source
Jubril, A.E., Ebenezer, O.I., & Alagbe, J.O. (2026).
“Sex-Specific Body Weight Prediction Accuracy in Improved and Exotic Chicken Strains in Nigeria.”
International Journal of Business and Management Practices (IJBMP), Vol. 4 No. 1, pp. 65–94.
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