Cyber-Resilience-Based Integrated Early Warning and Earthquake Response Information System Model: A Simulative Evaluation of Centralized and Distributed Configurations to Support Non-Military National Defenses

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FORMOSA NEWS - Jakarta - Distributed Earthquake Early Warning Systems Proven Superior Against Dual Cyber-Physical Threats. Researchers from the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia (Unhan RI) Mohammad Rayhan Syahman, Bambang Suharjo, and H.A. Danang Rimbawa have published a groundbreaking 2026 study evaluating a new cyber-resilient model for integrated earthquake early warning and response systems. The research assesses how decentralized, distributed digital architectures outperform traditional centralized configurations when catastrophic earthquakes coincide with deliberate cyberattacks. Published in the Formosa Journal of Computer and Information Science, the study provides a critical blueprint for non-military national defense, demonstrating how nations can protect vital disaster information infrastructure from complete collapse during multi-layered crises.

The Vulnerability of National Disaster Networks

Indonesia sits directly along the Pacific Ring of Fire, exposed to severe seismic hazards across hundreds of active earthquake zones and megathrust segments. Because earthquake warnings rely on seconds-long grace periods, effective disaster response depends entirely on rapid, reliable information exchange between key government nodes. In Indonesia, three primary institutions lead this effort: the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) detects seismic events; the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) coordinates response efforts; and the National Cyber and Crypto Agency (BSSN) secures the underlying digital channels. Despite strong sectoral capabilities within individual agencies, the national disaster response framework currently lacks a fully integrated, nation-wide information ecosystem. Differing data standards, application designs, and communication paths force agencies to conduct manual coordination steps during emergencies. Furthermore, reliance on centralized data centers exposes the entire nation to single points of failure. As demonstrated by real-world disruptions—such as the 2024 outage of Indonesia's Temporary National Data Center—centralized systems can completely paralyze public services when compromised. When severe earthquakes and cyber threats strike simultaneously, delays or corrupted data flow can prove fatal for disaster-stricken communities.

Simulating Crisis Scenarios via Agent-Based Modeling
To address these vulnerabilities, Mohammad Rayhan Syahman, Bambang Suharjo, and H.A. Danang Rimbawa at Unhan RI designed an integrated system architecture called an "integration layer". Built using Design Science Research principles, this framework connects existing institutional databases without replacing the autonomy of individual agencies. The architecture standardizes data exchange using open APIs, GeoJSON formats, and the international Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), while applying zero-trust and defense-in-depth security principles. To rigorously test the design, the Unhan RI research team operationalized the model into an agent-based simulation using the NetLogo platform. The simulation executed a $2\times2$ factorial design comparing two system structures (centralized versus distributed) across two operational environments (a standalone large-scale earthquake versus an earthquake occurring alongside concurrent Distributed Denial of Service attacks and data injection). The researchers calibrated simulation timing using real-world latency data from 39 historical BMKG earthquake events (averaging 165.3 seconds) and conducted 200 Monte Carlo replications per experimental cell totaling 800 executions to ensure precise statistical measurement.

Key Findings: Resilience Over Centralized Efficiency
The simulation metrics evaluated technical feasibility, operational effectiveness, and security resilience across both structural designs:

• 100% Interoperability: Both centralized and distributed architectures maintained complete data exchange compatibility under all baseline and attack conditions.
  
• Faster Threat Detection: Under dual cyber-physical attacks, the distributed configuration achieved a Mean Time to Detect (MTTD) cyber anomalies of 34 seconds (ticks), compared to 41 seconds in the centralized setup.
  
• Accelerated System Recovery: The distributed architecture recovered system functions (Mean Time to Recover/MTTR) in 110 seconds, outperforming the centralized configuration's recovery time of 140 seconds.
  
• Uncompromised Alert Delivery: The distributed framework maintained a 100% delivery success rate for the Common Operating Picture (COP) during cyberattacks. In contrast, delivery success in the centralized system plunged to 74.21%.
  
• Superior Data Integrity: Distributed networks preserved higher situational data integrity (71.53%) under attack compared to centralized networks (54.11%).
  
• Contained Blast Radius: When cyberattacks struck, paralysis spread across 100% of the centralized network. The distributed system limited the blast radius to 66.67%, ensuring one-third of the operational network remained fully functional.
  
• Controlled Trade-off in Availability: The centralized setup recorded higher aggregate availability (90.47%) than the distributed setup (77.08%). However, researchers note this reduction is a deliberate security strategy: distributed micro-segmentation intentionally isolates contaminated network paths to stop attacks from spreading, prioritizing data accuracy over raw network uptime.
  

Real-World Impact and Defense Policy
The findings from Unhan RI provide critical insights for disaster management authorities, military defenders, and infrastructure policymakers worldwide. The study demonstrates that securing national vital information infrastructure requires shifting from centralized digital hubs to distributed, cyber-resilient networks. By treating cyber-resilience as an inherent property of system architecture rather than an add-on security feature, governments can ensure life-saving earthquake alerts continue reaching first responders and the public even during state-sponsored cyber incidents.

Author Profiles
Mohammad Rayhan Syahman, S.Kom., M.Si. (Cand.) is a researcher and postgraduate scholar at the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia (Unhan RI). His expertise spans cyber-resilience engineering, disaster information systems, and agent-based modeling.
Dr. Bambang Suharjo is a faculty member and senior researcher at the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia (Unhan RI), specializing in disaster risk management, non-military defense strategies, and complex systems analysis.
H.A. Danang Rimbawa, M.T. is a lecturer and cybersecurity researcher at the Defense University of the Republic of Indonesia (Unhan RI), focusing on information security governance, critical infrastructure protection, and network interoperability.

Source
Mohammad Rayhan Syahman, Bambang Suharjo, H.A. Danang Rimbawa. Cyber-Resilience-Based Integrated Early Warning and Earthquake Response Information System Model: A Simulative Evaluation of Centralized and Distributed Configurations to Support Non-Military National Defenses. Formosa Journal of Computer and Information Science (FJCIS), Vol. 5, No. 2, 2026, hal. 367–380.
DOI : https://doi.org/10.55927/fjcis.v5i2.17101 /
URL: https://journal.formosapublisher.org/index.php/fjcis